1873 Ivan Way · St. Paul, MN 55116

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1912 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1912

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,445/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1609% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.01%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $72,633
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $184,809
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55116

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,445 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,982/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $1,540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,495

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1015 Sibley Memorial Hwy Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$2,650	$2.75	12d	7	0.90mi
740 Victoria St S Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$3,746	$3.48	2d	39	0.92mi
871 Sibley Memorial Hwy Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1207	$5,930	$4.91	2d	8	0.97mi
470 Lexington Pkwy S Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$3,500	$2.98	2d	19	1.16mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-28
   listed $150,000
2. 2026-04-28
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,982 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,982 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,982
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,307
• − Management: −$3,307
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $17,225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,134
• After-tax cash flow: $14,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,918
• Household income: $81,141
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1609.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -451.66%
• Current HPI: 230.3529
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $150,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,982 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.