71 Goembel Ave · Buffalo, NY 14211

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,673 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1920 0.32 ac lot Est $166k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 71 Goembel Avenue, a beautifully maintained home that has been lovingly cared for by the same family for nearly 60 years. Pride of ownership shines throughout, offering peace of mind and lasting value. Major updates include newer windows and doors (approximately 7 years old) along with updated mechanicals featuring central air, furnace, and tankless water heater all about 5 years young, as well as a roof about 3 years young. The home offers a full dry basement, ideal for storage, and a partially finished attic providing additional sleeping areas or living space to suit your needs. Situated on nearly 1/3 of an acre across three combined lots, this property offers an impressive amo

Key facts

• Updated mechanicals
• Newer windows
• Full dry basement

Tags

• NEWER WINDOWS
• UPDATED MECHANICALS
• FULL DRY BASEMENT
• PARTIALLY FINISHED ATTIC
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity and garage door opener; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing construction; Entry foyer
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Blown-in insulation; Shingle roof; Stone foundation; Resale property
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Private yard; Covered porch; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 on second floor; Bedroom 2 on second floor; Bedroom 3 on second floor; Additional rooms on third and first floors (other room types listed)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Storm windows; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Convertible bedroom; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (0.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,498/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,790

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,627
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Zenner St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,701 (+2%)	14mo	$90,000	$53	67
221 Wood Ave	0.35mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,572 (-6%)	3mo	$60,000	$38	66
239 Keystone St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (-2%)	10mo	$250,000	$153	64
236 Bissell Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (-5%)	1mo	$169,600	$107	60
162 Keystone St	0.27mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,630 (-3%)	22mo	$161,000	$99	60
26 Moeller St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,454 (-13%)	4mo	$220,000	$151	58
18 Wex Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,496 (-11%)	13mo	$112,000	$75	50
23 Kerns Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,551 (-7%)	20mo	$70,000	$45	28
137 Zelmer St	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,431 (-14%)	16mo	$165,000	$115	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $29,401
• Equity at exit: $59,524

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $87,804
• Equity at exit: $86,022

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14211

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,124

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $338	+0% $295	+5% $253	+10% $211
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $236	+0% $295	+5% $355	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $371	-0.5pp $334	base $295	+0.5pp $257	+1.0pp $217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	20d	1	0.38mi
96 Academy Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2247	$1,400	$0.62	24d	1	0.52mi
1777 Broadway Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	44d	1	0.75mi
979 Walden Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	2d	1	0.83mi
24 Euclid Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,700	$1.48	44d	1	0.93mi
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	2d	1	0.94mi
216 Newburgh Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1690	$1,150	$0.68	24d	1	1.01mi
1202 Walden Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	18d	1	1.24mi
71 Gerald Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1773	$1,100	$0.62	44d	1	1.26mi
110 Gerald Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	2098	$1,100	$0.52	24d	1	1.31mi
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	44d	1	1.34mi
73 Inter Park Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2080	$1,300	$0.62	15d	1	1.36mi
143 Reo Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,600	$1.40	12d	1	1.45mi
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-27
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,503 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,031/yr (+$86/mo · 218.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,438
• − Management: −$1,438
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,120
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$269
• After-tax cash flow: $3,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,663
• Household income: $36,300
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1804.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Current HPI: 357.6438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $472 · +116.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.