12111 Cantabria Rd · Austin, TX 78748

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Condo · 106 Days on market

Built 2025 $184/sqft · 32% below area Est $370k · 32% under $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful move-in-ready new construction home located in the desirable Estancia community in South Austin. This thoughtfully designed single-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a one-car garage. The open-concept floor plan creates a bright and inviting living space that flows seamlessly between the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy a private fenced yard ideal for relaxing, outdoor gatherings, or family time. With modern finishes and a functional layout, this home offers comfort, convenience, and great family living in one of South Austin’s growing communities with easy access to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Affordable Housing restrictions apply, buyer must not exceed 80% MFI and be income certified in order to purchase.

Key facts

• New construction
• Modern finishes
• Private fenced yard

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE FENCED YARD
• MODERN FINISHES
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 275 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $196,927 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,716
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -32.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-62,440
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-97,257
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78748

• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,292

Max offer price $213,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-82	-5% $-169	+0% $-255	+5% $-341	+10% $-428
Rent	-10% $-411	-5% $-333	+0% $-255	+5% $-177	+10% $-99
Rate	-1.0pp $-129	-0.5pp $-191	base $-255	+0.5pp $-320	+1.0pp $-386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 Puerta Vallarta Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,490	$1.35	45d	1	0.22mi
12000 S Interstate 35 Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1294	$1,989	$1.54	0d	37	0.24mi
820 Camino Vaquero Pkwy Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,053	$1.98	0d	39	0.33mi
12234 Heatherly Dr Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$1,730	$2.12	0d	58	0.41mi
1200 Estancia Pkwy Austin, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$2,170	$2.35	0d	27	0.41mi
827 Camino Vaquero Pkwy Manchaca, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$2,549	$2.59	0d	44	0.44mi
12001 Heatherly Dr Austin, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,616	$1.77	0d	38	0.53mi
1901 Onion Creek Pkwy Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$1,844	$1.76	0d	19	0.56mi
2213 Cascades Ave Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$2,280	$2.35	6d	38	0.63mi
2333 Cascades Ave Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,520	$1.58	0d	15	0.68mi
1906 Onion Creek Pkwy Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,768	$1.40	45d	1	0.69mi
11410 Old San Antonio Rd Manchaca, TX	3.0	3.0	1503	$2,359	$1.57	0d	9	0.71mi
11425 Pastini Cir Manchaca, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$2,199	$1.62	25d	1	0.73mi
12800 Old San Antonio Rd Unit A Manchaca, TX	2.0	1.5	924	$1,650	$1.79	25d	1	0.74mi
11409 Pastini Cir Manchaca, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$2,199	$1.62	25d	1	0.74mi
12803 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,450	$1.41	16d	1	0.75mi
702 Blackwell Ave Apt B Manchaca, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	45d	1	0.76mi
2000 Onion Creek Pkwy Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$2,181	$2.50	0d	45	0.76mi
1900 Onion Creek Pkwy Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,953	$1.97	0d	20	0.79mi
11301 Farrah Austin, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$2,032	$2.21	0d	35	0.82mi
11509 Autumn Ash Dr Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.0	1352	$2,100	$1.55	45d	1	0.83mi
11609 Dillon Falls Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$2,250	$1.64	14d	1	0.89mi
11609 Dillon Falls Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$2,250	$1.64	5d	1	0.89mi
1100 Avenida Mercado St Manchaca, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1090	$1,318	$1.21	5d	1	0.90mi
600 Farm to Market 1626 Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,720	$1.89	0d	26	1.02mi
11118 S 1st St Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$2,197	$1.62	45d	1	1.07mi
4907 Escape Rivera Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,350	$1.37	19d	1	1.08mi
11509 Sombrero Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1834	$2,195	$1.20	0d	1	1.09mi
11509 Sombrero Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1834	$2,225	$1.21	19d	1	1.09mi
11007 S 1st St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,728	$1.32	45d	1	1.11mi
10819 Crown Colony Dr #31 Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1207	$1,850	$1.53	45d	1	1.12mi
11001 S 1st St Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$1,643	$1.55	0d	19	1.13mi
801 Steel Timber Dr Unit 611 Manchaca, TX	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,469	$1.45	14d	1	1.13mi
801 Steel Timber Dr Unit 711 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,124	$1.52	14d	1	1.13mi
801 Steel Timber Dr Unit 834 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,124	$1.52	0d	1	1.13mi
801 Steel Timber Dr Unit 858 Manchaca, TX	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,469	$1.45	0d	1	1.13mi
13207 Easley Dr Unit 1039127P Manchaca, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$7,182	$4.00	0d	1	1.23mi
10801 S Interstate 35 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,856	$1.63	45d	1	1.31mi
10801 S Interstate 35 Frontage Rd Unit 10858 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,201	$1.05	0d	1	1.31mi
10801 S Interstate 35 Frontage Rd Unit 3018 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,065	$1.34	12d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,999 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,999 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,999 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,999 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,999 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,999 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,999 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-03-07
    listed $249,999 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful move-in-ready new construction home located in the desirable Estancia community in South Austin. This thoughtfully designed single-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a one-car garage. The open-concept floor plan creates a bright and inviting living space that flows seamlessly between the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy a private fenced yard ideal for relaxing, outdoor gatherings, or family time. With modern finishes and a functional layout, this home offers comfort, convenience, and great family living in one of South Austin’s growing communities with easy access to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Affordable Housing restrictions apply, buyer must not exceed 80% MFI and be income certified in order to purchase.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,781
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,631
• Household income: $115,213
• Rent vs Own: 43.3% rent · 56.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2066.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 17% Asian 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -427.12%
• Current HPI: 234.9355
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.66%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Listed $249,999 Unlock MLS