4468 Cottage Grove Rd · Byrnes Mill, MO 63051

$260,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,610 sqft · Other public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1961 1.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.45 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1961

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported approximately 2,010 (1,610 above grade, 400 below grade)
• Financial info: Seller may consider concessions; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 22' x 20')
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable and electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Front yard; Gentle sloping lot; Many trees; Private lot; No fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total, 3 on the main level, 1 on the lower level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Basement with 8+ ft poured construction

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Byrnes Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#591 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest R-I (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #128 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Springs Elem. (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 414 students, 33% FRL); Northwest High (math 26% / reading 56%, grade F, #236 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 1,841 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,388 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-55,589
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-65,978
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63051

• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,674/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,040

Max offer price $222,914

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-63	-5% $-136	+0% $-210	+5% $-284	+10% $-357
Rent	-10% $-350	-5% $-280	+0% $-210	+5% $-140	+10% $-70
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-144	base $-210	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 518-char remark
2. 2026-05-02
   listed $260,000 Active 518-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   historical $260,000 518-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,674 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,522 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$848/yr (+$71/mo · 50.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,674
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$7,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,733
• After-tax cash flow: $-786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest R-I
• NCES district ID: 2922890
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,998
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5034
• State rank: #128 of 324 in MO

Livability — Byrnes Mill

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #591
• US rank: #20943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,589

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.81%
• Current HPI: 209.5904
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Listed $260,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $260,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,674 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.