11949 Riverside Dr #28 · Lakeside, CA 92040

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $308k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exquisite Golf Course Remodel in Willowbrook Welcome to this stunningly reimagined golf course home, where modern elegance meets effortless comfort. Thoughtfully redesigned with an open-concept layout, this residence is ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The chef-inspired kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring brand-new soft-close cabinetry, high-end appliances, a 5-burner range, and striking quartz countertops that beautifully blend style and function. Expansive windows showcase breathtaking golf course views, tranquil waterways, and the graceful flight of native birds — creating a peaceful backdrop you’ll enjoy every day. The spacious primary suite offers a

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• High-end appliances
• 5-burner range

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• HIGH-END APPLIANCES
• 5-BURNER RANGE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Community pool; Located in a senior community (Willowbrook East, Lakeside subdivision)

Exterior

• Parking: Tandem parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Natural gas available and connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home; Residential property; Updated/Remodeled
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Shed(s); Golf course frontage; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas cooktop; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas cooktop; Gas water heater; Linoleum flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($247/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#877 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeside Farms Elementary (649 students, 32% FRL); Lakeside Middle (676 students, 32% FRL); El Capitan High (math 20% / reading 54%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,825 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $299k implies a 1146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,165 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,776
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11949 Riverside Dr #133	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,376 (+2%)	1mo	$161,000	$117	95
11949 Riverside Dr #155	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$95,000	$71	92
11949 Riverside Dr #55	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	1mo	$125,000	$100	84
11949 Riverside Dr #25	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	22mo	$340,000	$253	81
11851 Riverside Dr #246	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	10mo	$418,500	$299	76
11851 Riverside Dr Spc 223	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,418 (+6%)	10mo	$375,000	$264	74
11851 Riverside Dr #262	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,331 (-1%)	20mo	$342,000	$257	68
11949 Riverside Dr #38	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+14%)	4mo	$192,500	$125	67
11851 RIVERSIDE Dr #238	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+4%)	15mo	$375,000	$268	67
11851 Riverside Dr Spc 260	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (+1%)	23mo	$300,000	$221	65
11851 Riverside #202	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,246 (-7%)	21mo	$285,000	$229	56
11949 Riverside Dr #7	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,530 (+14%)	21mo	$278,900	$182	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,603
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-31,649
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92040

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,642 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $124	+0% $21	+5% $-83	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-84	+0% $21	+5% $125	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $97	base $21	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12156 Lakeside Ave Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.0	1424	$3,500	$2.46	0d	1	0.26mi
9830 Summersun Ln Lakeside, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1325	$2,400	$1.81	0d	1	0.65mi
12370 Parkside St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$1,925	$2.04	9d	1	0.71mi
12001 Woodside Ave Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	1006	$2,350	$2.34	0d	1	0.71mi
12618 Laurel St Unit 12618 C Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,390	$2.17	3d	1	0.85mi
10112 Ashwood St Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$1,944	$2.55	0d	8	0.87mi
12645 Laurel St Apt 13 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,950	$2.17	0d	1	0.90mi
12645 Laurel St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,950	$2.17	12d	1	0.90mi
12650 Lakeshore Dr #158 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,500	$2.78	0d	1	0.96mi
9662 Marilla Dr Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	931	$2,388	$2.56	3d	4	0.97mi
9662 Marilla Dr Unit 93 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	931	$2,350	$2.52	12d	1	0.97mi
9728 Marilla Dr #305 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,590	$2.74	0d	1	0.98mi
12840 Mapleview St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	880	$2,100	$2.39	0d	2	1.04mi
12738 Lakeshore Dr Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1368	$4,300	$3.14	9d	1	1.04mi
9205 Emerald Grove Ave Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.0	1652	$3,650	$2.21	4d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $299,000 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-04-13
   price $299,000
6. 2026-03-24
   price $309,000
7. 2026-03-16
   price $319,000
8. 2026-03-04
   listed $329,000 Active
9. 1994-08-11
   soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,536
• − Management: −$2,536
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,152
• After-tax cash flow: $1,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620790
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,574
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #6453
• State rank: #480 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #877
• US rank: #23702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 46,216
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,216
• Household income: $107,937
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -622.09%
• Current HPI: 344.8263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1145.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $299,000 SDMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $309,000 SDMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $319,000 SDMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $329,000 SDMLS
• 1994-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2013): $363 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.