12957 E Carter Crane Dr · Rincon Valley, AZ 85641

$389,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · Land · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 6,875 sqft lot $84/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This low-maintenance, single-story home features a generous open floorplan shared between the Great Room, kitchen and dining room, maximizing the footprint of the interior. The luxurious owner's suite is privately situated toward the back of the home, while three secondary bedrooms can be found off a hallway near the foyer. This home includes GE® stainless steal appliances, Rinnai Tankless Water Heater, prep for reverse osmosis, Granite Countertops, 2'' faux wood blinds, LED lighting and so much more! -

Key facts

• 6,875 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - GR1
• HOA & community: Part of Rocking K South association; HOA provides common area maintenance; HOA fee roughly $84.50 quarterly; Community amenities include park, jogging/bike paths, walking trails, basketball court, pickleball, paved streets and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage (tandem, 3 covered spaces)
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Model: Odyssey A; Faces south
• Construction: Built by Lennar; Frame with stucco exterior; Tile roof; Living area approximately 1,852
• Exterior features: Patio; Block fencing; Decorative gravel; North/South exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas range; Microwave; Exhaust fan; Tankless water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans pre-wired
• Interior features: Foyer entry; Walk-in closets; Door lever accessibility; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-639 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in Rincon Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#160 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ocotillo Ridge Elementary (math 79% / reading 77%, grade A, #19 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 652 students, 17% FRL); Old Vail Middle School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 798 students, 17% FRL); Mica Mountain High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 1,161 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 655 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $270,854 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-98,210
• Equity at exit: $58,149

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-113,565
• Equity at exit: $33,719

Cash invested: $109,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85641

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,709 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,850/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$84
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,518

Max offer price $297,470

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-370	-5% $-505	+0% $-639	+5% $-774	+10% $-909
Rent	-10% $-853	-5% $-746	+0% $-639	+5% $-532	+10% $-425
Rate	-1.0pp $-443	-0.5pp $-540	base $-639	+0.5pp $-740	+1.0pp $-843

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,498
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12859 E Ursa Major Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	2262	$2,900	$1.28	44d	1	0.15mi
8042 S Golden Bell Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,895	$1.37	44d	1	0.25mi
13142 E Cembeline Ln Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,195	$1.18	3d	1	0.26mi
7880 S Bonanza Park Dr Tucson, AZ	5.0	3.0	1939	$2,500	$1.29	3d	1	0.31mi
13154 E Apex Mine Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1745	$3,200	$1.83	44d	1	0.44mi
13466 E Joseph Mills Ln Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	2138	$2,200	$1.03	3d	1	0.65mi
7720 S Rocking K Ranch Loop Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1202	$2,705	$2.25	2d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $84 · $1,008/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 512-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $389,990 Active 512-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$5,850
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,600
• − Management: −$2,600
• − HOA: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$14,696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,527
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rincon Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #18098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rincon Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,752
• Household income: $131,164
• Rent vs Own: 5.9% rent · 94.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.78%
• Current HPI: 250.1814
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $389,990 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $485,520 Public Records
• 2026-05-06 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-28 Listed $389,990 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $513 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.