46 Flaggy Hole Rd · Springs, NY 11937

$1,595,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 239 Days on market

Built 1940 0.52 ac lot $1139/sqft · 35% above area Est $1179k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Call or email the agent for info.

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 239 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.59M).
• Recommended offer: $1.40M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $16,153/mo this rent would consume 149% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $447k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $500k; list at $1.59M implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,403,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.50%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,179,221
• List price: $1,595,000
• Delta: 35.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Gann Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+3%)	14mo	$999,900	$696	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $27,684
• Equity at exit: $237,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $669,414
• Equity at exit: $137,906

Cash invested: $446,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,364
• Tax from tax record: −$569 /mo · $6,833/yr
• Insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,392
• Net cashflow: $3,162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,150

Max offer price $1,595,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $398,750
• Closing costs: $47,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Maidstone Park Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.5	1800	$75,000	$41.67	43d	1	0.10mi
19 Pond Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$85,000	$56.67	43d	1	0.72mi
289 Three Mile Harbor Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1600	$45,600	$28.50	43d	1	1.11mi
38 Woodbine Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1000	$10,000	$10.00	18d	1	1.21mi
197 Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1700	$20,000	$11.76	43d	1	1.31mi
12 Underwood Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$30,000	$18.75	18d	1	1.39mi
117 Woodbine Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1496	$65,000	$43.45	43d	1	1.43mi
1181 Springs Fireplace Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$75,000	$46.88	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 33-char remark

   Show marketing remark (33 chars)

   Call or email the agent for info.

2. 2025-10-22
   price $1,595,000 33-char remark

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   Call or email the agent for info.

3. 2025-09-10
   listed $1,695,000 Active 33-char remark

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   Call or email the agent for info.

4. 2013-04-09
   soldstatus $500,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,833 · $569/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $16,894 · $1,408/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,061/yr (+$838/mo · 147.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $193,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,345
• − Property taxes: −$6,833
• − Insurance: −$7,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,507
• − Management: −$15,507
• − Depreciation: −$46,400
• Taxable income: $12,267
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,944
• After-tax cash flow: $35,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+219.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $1,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Listed $1,695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,833 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.