18177 W Pioneer St · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$572,907

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,045 sqft · Land · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 6,935 sqft lot $188/sqft · 19% above area Est $480k · 19% over $125/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

WOW!!! Perfect 5BR + Den + Loft / 4.5BA / 2GAR. Oversized yard!! Full BR/BA downstairs for Mother-in-law plus Den with Beautiful Glass Double Doors for a private office downstairs. GOURMET KITCHEN w. Chimney Hood, Wall Oven, Gas Stove. White cabinets over White Quartz Counters. Large Backyard with no neighbor behind!! Full Wood Railing with great place for your super tall Christmas Tree!!

Key facts

• Oversized yard
• White cabinets
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OVERSIZED YARD
• FULL BR BA DOWNSTAIRS
• DEN WITH GLASS DOUBLE DOORS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WHITE CABINETS
• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee of $125 covering grounds maintenance; Community amenities include pool, pickleball courts, playground, and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Complete spec home
• Construction: Brick veneer, stucco, and wood frame construction; Tile roof; Low-VOC paint; Blown cellulose insulation; Painted exterior
• Exterior features: Sprinklers in front yard; Desert front landscaping; Dirt in back yard; Block fencing; Mountain views; City-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in electric oven
• Bedrooms: Up to 7 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Smart home features; Double vanity; Upstairs living area; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Kitchen island; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows with vinyl frames; Multi-zone energy-efficient HVAC
• Laundry & utility: Upstairs laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath land listed at $573k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (47.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (51.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (51.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Liberty Elementary District (4266) (rural): math 26% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #100 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Las Brisas Academy (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 655 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1088 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($556k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $278,856 (51.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.07%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 17.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $480,179
• List price: $572,907
• Delta: 19.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-220,708
• Equity at exit: $85,422

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.35×
• Total profit: $-377,574
• Equity at exit: $49,535

Cash invested: $160,414 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1088
• Price-to-rent: 17.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,004
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$716 /mo · $8,594/yr
• Insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-1,881

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,170

Max offer price $300,684

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,227
• Closing costs: $17,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17954 W Raymond St Goodyear, AZ	5.0	3.0	3466	$2,950	$0.85	1d	1	0.42mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	1d	1	0.62mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	4d	1	0.62mi
3422 S 176th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2647	$3,350	$1.27	1d	1	0.68mi
2506 S 186th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	3100	$30,000	$9.68	1d	1	0.71mi
18233 W Pueblo Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	1d	1	0.77mi
4119 S 186th Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2977	$2,350	$0.79	43d	1	0.81mi
1613 S 174th Ln Goodyear, AZ	5.0	3.0	2999	$2,999	$1.00	1d	1	1.30mi
17421 W Papago St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2522	$2,600	$1.03	14d	1	1.41mi
17415 W Yavapai St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.0	2277	$2,295	$1.01	16d	1	1.46mi
17430 W Yavapai St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2277	$1,995	$0.88	1d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $572,907 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $572,907 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $572,907 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $572,907 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $572,907 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $572,907 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $572,907 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $572,907 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $572,907 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $572,907 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $572,907 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $572,907 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $572,907 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $572,907 Active 391-char remark
15. 2026-02-06
    soldstatus $622,005
16. 2025-06-27
    soldstatus $25,574,537

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,092
• − Property taxes: −$8,594
• − Insurance: −$2,865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,677
• − Management: −$2,677
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$16,666
• Taxable loss: −$33,608
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,066
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Elementary District (4266)
• NCES district ID: 0404320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $71,731
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6881
• State rank: #100 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-97.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $572,907 ARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $622,005 Public Records
• 2025-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $25,574,537 Public Records