511 NE Ave H · Carrabelle, FL 32322

$405,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,220 sqft · Manufactured public records · 279 Days on market

Built 2021 0.34 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

REDUCED!!!!! IMMACULATE CUSTOM 2021 MANUFACTURED HOME! BUILT BY STONEY POINTE BY WINSTON HOMES. Franklin County Tax Appraiser CAMA code upgraded to code#000821 -"MANUFACTURED HIGH". Wind zone 3 rating. Too many custom upgrades to list. The seller will supply the list. Zone 3 construction includes a stronger chassis and anchoring systems to secure the home to its foundation. Reinforced roofing and side materials to withstand strong wind pressures. Impact-resistant DP-50 windows and storm doors. X FLOOD ZONE, so no flood insurance required! Survey and Elevation Certificate available! Electric fireplace in the main den, also a portable electric fireplace. ADA friendly throughout.

Key facts

• Screened back porch
• Full bathroom
• Outdoor cookshed

Tags

• CUSTOM MANUFACTURED HOME
• WIND ZONE 3 RATING
• IMPACT RESISTANT WINDOWS
• OUTDOOR COOKSHED
• SCREENED BACK PORCH
• FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Workshop, outdoor kitchen, and additional storage structures on property; Zoned R-2 (mobile home / residential single family)

Exterior

• Parking: 6 parking spaces; Boat parking; Carport; Circular driveway; Covered parking; RV access/parking
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water and well available; Public sewer; Sewer connected; Electricity available and connected; Underground utilities; Cable available and connected; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile/manufactured); Residential property; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Covered and screened porch; Rear porch; Front porch; Enclosed porch; Partial backyard fencing; Landscaped, level lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Freezer; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s) included
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Built-in bookcases; Crown molding; Interior storage; Recessed lighting; Storm windows; Window coverings

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $356k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.9% in Carrabelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#466 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Franklin (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 73 in FL (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 113 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $356,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.29%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-29,823
• Equity at exit: $60,387

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $19,906
• Equity at exit: $35,017

Cash invested: $113,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32322

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,804/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$832
• Net cashflow: $563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,251

Max offer price $405,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,250
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Anglers Harbor Ln Unit 1545694P Carrabelle, FL	3.0	3.0	2195	$3,964	$1.81	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $405,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $405,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $405,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $405,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $405,000 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $405,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $405,000 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $405,000 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $405,000 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $405,000 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $405,000 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $405,000 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $405,000 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $405,000 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $405,000 Active 261 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $405,000 Active 260 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $405,000 Active 259 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    price $405,000
19. 2025-09-12
    listed $410,000 Active
20. 2025-09-11
    historical
21. 2025-08-24
    listed $439,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,362 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,558/yr (+$130/mo · 86.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone A · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$1,804
• − Insurance: −$3,528
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,805
• − Management: −$3,805
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable income: $158
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$38
• After-tax cash flow: $6,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin
• NCES district ID: 1200570
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,084
• Composite: 29.7/100
• National rank: #6454
• State rank: #67 of 73 in FL

Livability — Carrabelle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #466
• US rank: #8398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrabelle, FL
• Population (ZIP): 4,348

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,827 people
• By 2030: 11,839 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 11,707 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 11,218 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 9,849 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 7,286 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.7% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+31.5 2008: R+27.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.76%
• Current HPI: 185.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $405,000 RAFGC
• 2025-09-12 Listed $410,000 RAFGC
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-08-24 Listed $439,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+58.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,804 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.