81 Pixy Pl · Santa Rosa, CA 95409

$269,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 973 sqft · Manufactured · 104 Days on market

Built 2023 ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY: Brand New 2023 Clayton Home offered by Clayton Homes Santa Rosa. This beautiful house is located in the 55+ community Santa Rosa Village. This home from our Fairpoint Collection has an open concept layout, with 9' high ceilings, an island in the kitchen with bar seating, solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms with seamless sinks, tile backsplash in kitchen and bathrooms, Frigidaire Stainless Steel gas appliances, medicine cabinets in bathrooms. Master shower has solid surface walls with a stainless steel grab bar, cabinets throughout, front covered porch, and many more features.

Key facts

• Turnkey home
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Large island

Tags

• TURNKEY HOME
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• PULL-OUT DRAWERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Santa Rosa Village Mobile Home Park
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease amount $1,001

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available; See remarks regarding parking
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector; Smoke detector; Double-strapped water heater
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park; Double wide
• Construction: Composition roof; Manufactured home by CMH MFG West / Clayton Sacramento; Skirting: Other
• Exterior features: Porch; Uncovered patio; Carport awning; Outdoor storage area; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Breakfast area; Kitchen island; Storage area; Carbon monoxide detector; Double-strapped water heater; Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,161 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.37%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,410
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Cardinal Way	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+3%)	0mo	$120,000	$120	78
94 Buckwood Pl	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+11%)	2mo	$119,000	$110	72
89 Oriole Way	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	947 (-3%)	9mo	$235,000	$248	65
99 Buckwood Pl	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,060 (+9%)	16mo	$180,000	$170	64
104 Bluejay Dr #135	0.43mi	2/2.0	960 (-1%)	16mo	$160,000	$167	64
71 Oriole Way	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+8%)	8mo	$230,000	$218	61
87 Cardinal Way	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+3%)	23mo	$192,000	$192	60
170 Blue Jay Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,037 (+7%)	11mo	$240,000	$231	59
187 Blue Jay Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,050 (+8%)	11mo	$176,000	$168	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-29,840
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,366
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95409

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,402 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,132/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,137

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
701 Mission Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,995	$2.35	21d	1	0.11mi
808 Shady Oak Dr Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	14d	1	0.15mi
1201 Mission Blvd Unit 1255 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	970	$2,000	$2.06	14d	1	0.22mi
146 Brush Creek Rd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$2,075	$3.19	14d	1	0.31mi
150 Brush Creek Rd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$2,100	$3.23	14d	1	0.31mi
4145 Shadow Ln Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$2,893	$3.51	14d	11	0.33mi
1106 Prospect Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	605	$1,895	$3.13	14d	1	0.35mi
4656 Quigg Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,680	$2.82	14d	9	0.47mi
3732 Ahl Park Ct Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,796	$2.73	13d	7	0.65mi
3637 Sonoma Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.5	1117	$2,599	$2.33	14d	3	0.69mi
695 Summerfield Rd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	719	$2,345	$3.26	13d	1	0.79mi
6123 Montecito Blvd Unit rh6123Montecito14 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,150	$3.07	21d	1	0.93mi
6233 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,195	$2.93	14d	1	1.00mi
6221 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,145	$2.86	14d	3	1.01mi
6263 Montecito Blvd Unit 05 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	14d	1	1.07mi
6263 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	23d	1	1.08mi
6401 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$1,975	$2.37	14d	1	1.13mi
174 S Boas Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	781	$2,755	$3.53	13d	6	1.19mi
2120 Sonoma Ave Unit 3 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	770	$1,895	$2.46	21d	1	1.22mi
6600 Montecito Blvd Unit 02 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,450	$2.58	21d	1	1.24mi
6600 Montecito Blvd Unit 49 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,999	$2.67	23d	1	1.24mi
1530 Atlanta Ct Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	833	$2,395	$2.88	21d	1	1.40mi
1530 Atlanta Ct Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0	903	$2,345	$2.60	13d	2	1.40mi
1530 Atlanta Ct Unit 09 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	833	$2,395	$2.88	13d	1	1.40mi
1532 Atlanta Ct Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	833	$2,395	$2.88	13d	1	1.40mi
1530 Boston Ct Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	661	$1,995	$3.02	13d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,900 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-03-06
    listed $269,900 Active
18. 2023-10-26
    soldstatus $290,620 Closed 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    MOVE IN READY: Brand New 2023 Clayton Home offered by Clayton Homes Santa Rosa. This beautiful house is located in the 55+ community Santa Rosa Village. This home from our Fairpoint Collection has an open concept layout, with 9' high ceilings, an island in the kitchen with bar seating, solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms with seamless sinks, tile backsplash in kitchen and bathrooms, Frigidaire Stainless Steel gas appliances, medicine cabinets in bathrooms. Master shower has solid surface walls with a stainless steel grab bar, cabinets throughout, front covered porch, and many more features.

19. 2023-09-29
    status Pending 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    MOVE IN READY: Brand New 2023 Clayton Home offered by Clayton Homes Santa Rosa. This beautiful house is located in the 55+ community Santa Rosa Village. This home from our Fairpoint Collection has an open concept layout, with 9' high ceilings, an island in the kitchen with bar seating, solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms with seamless sinks, tile backsplash in kitchen and bathrooms, Frigidaire Stainless Steel gas appliances, medicine cabinets in bathrooms. Master shower has solid surface walls with a stainless steel grab bar, cabinets throughout, front covered porch, and many more features.

20. 2023-08-11
    price $299,500 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    MOVE IN READY: Brand New 2023 Clayton Home offered by Clayton Homes Santa Rosa. This beautiful house is located in the 55+ community Santa Rosa Village. This home from our Fairpoint Collection has an open concept layout, with 9' high ceilings, an island in the kitchen with bar seating, solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms with seamless sinks, tile backsplash in kitchen and bathrooms, Frigidaire Stainless Steel gas appliances, medicine cabinets in bathrooms. Master shower has solid surface walls with a stainless steel grab bar, cabinets throughout, front covered porch, and many more features.

21. 2023-07-31
    listed $329,500 New 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    MOVE IN READY: Brand New 2023 Clayton Home offered by Clayton Homes Santa Rosa. This beautiful house is located in the 55+ community Santa Rosa Village. This home from our Fairpoint Collection has an open concept layout, with 9' high ceilings, an island in the kitchen with bar seating, solid surface countertops in kitchen and bathrooms with seamless sinks, tile backsplash in kitchen and bathrooms, Frigidaire Stainless Steel gas appliances, medicine cabinets in bathrooms. Master shower has solid surface walls with a stainless steel grab bar, cabinets throughout, front covered porch, and many more features.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,051 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$919/yr (+$77/mo · 81.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,132
• − Insurance: −$2,147
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,306
• − Management: −$2,306
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$2,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$490
• After-tax cash flow: $2,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,616
• Household income: $107,867
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -750.32%
• Current HPI: 226.8795
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-18.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $269,900 BAREIS
• 2023-10-26 Sold (MLS) $290,620 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-09-29 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-08-11 Price Changed $299,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-07-31 Listed $329,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,132 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.