18051 Mellon St · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$352,748

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,874 sqft · Land · 110 Days on market

Built 2026 4,800 sqft lot $284/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This expansive two-story home boasts a well-designed layout, featuring a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room and family room, with a covered lanai extending the interior space outdoors. Upstairs, a spacious loft separates the three secondary bedrooms from the serene owner's suite. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Serene owner's suite
• Covered lanai

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED LANAI
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• SEPARATE SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• SERENE OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (Association: CCMC Brad Jeffers); Monthly HOA fee of $284.33; Association approval required; HOA includes internet and grounds maintenance; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Canal/lake irrigation and private water source; Private sewer; BB/HS internet available; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Water available and connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler recycled system
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (completed); Two levels; Faces northeast; Lake view
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Lennar (Columbus model)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Sidewalk; Irrigation equipment; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Sidewalks (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Freezer; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Loft (additional room)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split-bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $353k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $288,680 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-77,564
• Equity at exit: $52,596

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-115,441
• Equity at exit: $30,499

Cash invested: $98,769 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,887 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,850
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,259/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$284
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,125

Max offer price $319,447

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,187
• Closing costs: $10,582
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	23d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $284 · $3,408/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $352,748 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricestatus $352,748 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $333,698 Pending 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $333,698 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $333,698 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $333,698 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $332,248 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $332,248 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-04-22
   price $332,248 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   This expansive two-story home boasts a well-designed layout, featuring a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room and family room, with a covered lanai extending the interior space outdoors. Upstairs, a spacious loft separates the three secondary bedrooms from the serene owner's suite. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage.

10. 2026-04-21
    price $332,248
11. 2026-03-27
    price $347,298
12. 2026-03-24
    price $347,298 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This expansive two-story home boasts a well-designed layout, featuring a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room and family room, with a covered lanai extending the interior space outdoors. Upstairs, a spacious loft separates the three secondary bedrooms from the serene owner's suite. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage.

13. 2026-02-19
    listed $371,998 Active
14. 2026-02-13
    price $371,998 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This expansive two-story home boasts a well-designed layout, featuring a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room and family room, with a covered lanai extending the interior space outdoors. Upstairs, a spacious loft separates the three secondary bedrooms from the serene owner's suite. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage.

15. 2026-01-13
    price $383,648 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This expansive two-story home boasts a well-designed layout, featuring a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room and family room, with a covered lanai extending the interior space outdoors. Upstairs, a spacious loft separates the three secondary bedrooms from the serene owner's suite. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage.

16. 2026-01-07
    listed $388,298 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This expansive two-story home boasts a well-designed layout, featuring a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room and family room, with a covered lanai extending the interior space outdoors. Upstairs, a spacious loft separates the three secondary bedrooms from the serene owner's suite. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,259 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$669/yr (+$56/mo · 29.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,759
• − Property taxes: −$2,259
• − Insurance: −$1,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,771
• − Management: −$2,771
• − HOA: −$3,408
• − Depreciation: −$10,262
• Taxable loss: −$8,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,005
• After-tax cash flow: $-257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-14.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $332,248 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $332,248 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $347,298 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $347,298 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Listed $371,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $371,998 Zillow
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $383,648 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Listed $388,298 Zillow