16 Gerry Rd · Sherman, ME 04776

$127,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Fair condition 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 76 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Additional gravel parking with space for 5–10 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric service with circuit breakers; Private sewer with septic design available
• Home design: Colonial style single-family home; Above-grade finished living area recorded
• Construction: Built with wood frame, clapboard and vinyl siding; Foundation includes granite and brick/mortar
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Private water source; Residential zoning; Lot approximately 2 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second floor; One bedroom on the second floor listed as Bedroom 1 (room level noted in bedrooms)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating with forced air
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $127k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• RSU 89 (rural): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #136 of 185 in ME (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Aroostook County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($878 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Aroostook County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $119,380 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.85%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $34,566
• Equity at exit: $69,849

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $99,242
• Equity at exit: $118,833

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04776

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$159 /mo · $1,905/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,111

Max offer price $127,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $127,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $127,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $127,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $127,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $127,000
17. 2026-05-08
    price $128,000
18. 2026-04-03
    listed $129,000 Active
19. 2025-12-01
    price $89,000
20. 2025-11-03
    price $96,000
21. 2025-10-21
    price $97,000
22. 2025-09-25
    price $98,000
23. 2025-09-10
    price $99,000
24. 2025-08-29
    price $114,500
25. 2025-07-29
    price $123,000
26. 2025-07-23
    price $124,000
27. 2025-07-14
    price $125,000
28. 2025-07-07
    price $126,000
29. 2025-07-01
    price $127,000
30. 2025-06-23
    price $128,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$1,905
• − Insurance: −$635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable loss: −$694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$167
• After-tax cash flow: $1,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Extensive rehab

The property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a fair condition. The highest-ROI updates include exterior painting, interior repairs, and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed framing — Structural integrity compromised
• Major Missing drywall — Exposed framing and subfloor
• Major Missing cabinets — Exposed framing
• Major Missing fixtures — Exposed framing
• Minor Overgrown vegetation — Aesthetic issue

Value-add opportunities

• Both Exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Interior drywall and framing repairs — Restores structural integrity and aesthetics
• Both Kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Completes the kitchen and adds functionality
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves overall appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed framing · Structural integrity compromised	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing drywall · Exposed framing and subfloor	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing cabinets · Exposed framing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing fixtures · Exposed framing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Overgrown vegetation · Aesthetic issue	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$60,500–203,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior drywall and framing repairs — Restores structural integrity and aesthetics ↑
• Both Kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Completes the kitchen and adds functionality ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves overall appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 89
• NCES district ID: 2314838
• Math proficiency: 30% —
• Reading proficiency: 45% —
• Median HH income: $36,317
• Composite: 33.62/100
• National rank: #10477
• State rank: #136 of 185 in ME

Livability — Sherman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 886

Population outlook (Aroostook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,905 people
• By 2030: 57,815 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 49,240 · -20.5%
• By 2050: 41,386 · -33.1%
• By 2075: 27,664 · -55.3%
• By 2100: 18,974 · -69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Polish 11% Lithuanian 10% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · German/W. Germanic 22% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Aroostook

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.2% · R 62.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.8pp toward R · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+17.3 2012: D+7.7 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.72%
• Current HPI: 168.9152
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $127,000 MREIS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $128,000 MREIS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $129,000 MREIS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $89,000 MREIS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $96,000 MREIS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $97,000 MREIS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $98,000 MREIS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $99,000 MREIS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $114,500 MREIS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $123,000 MREIS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $124,000 MREIS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $125,000 MREIS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $126,000 MREIS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $127,000 MREIS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $128,000 MREIS