3467 Belleview Rd · Lakewood, NY 14712

$258,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,738 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1958 0.84 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

First time ever offered! Located in the Bemus Point School District, this well-loved Cape Cod was built in 1958 by the seller's father and has remained in the family ever since. Full of character and potential, the home features a spacious three-season Florida room with a beautiful maple wood ceiling, an eat-in kitchen with sliding glass doors leading to a side deck, and a large living room highlighted by a wood beam ceiling and electric fireplace. The main floor offers two bedrooms and a full bath, while the second floor includes two additional bedrooms and a convenient half bath. Hardwood floors are believed to be under the dining room carpet, and ample storage can be found throughout the

Key facts

• Maple wood ceiling
• Eat in kitchen
• Sliding glass doors

Tags

• THREE SEASON FLORIDA ROOM
• MAPLE WOOD CEILING
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• WOOD BEAM CEILING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bemus Point Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 283 students, 35% FRL); Maple Grove Junior/Senior High School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #912 of 1,100 statewide, top 85%, 319 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $184,943 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.52%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $119,621
• Equity at exit: $232,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $368,998
• Equity at exit: $502,209

Cash invested: $72,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14712

• Home prices YoY: 15.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,356
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,967/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,271

Max offer price $199,705

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-186	-5% $-260	+0% $-333	+5% $-406	+10% $-479
Rent	-10% $-479	-5% $-406	+0% $-333	+5% $-260	+10% $-187
Rate	-1.0pp $-203	-0.5pp $-267	base $-333	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,625
• Closing costs: $7,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $258,500 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $258,500 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,500 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,500 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,500 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $258,500 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on marketlisting id $258,500 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,500 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $258,500 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    pricestatusdays on market $258,500 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active Under Contract 189 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active Under Contract 188 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active Under Contract 187 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active Under Contract 186 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,000 Active Under Contract 185 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-30
    price $259,000
20. 2026-02-10
    price $279,000
21. 2026-01-05
    price $299,000
22. 2025-11-08
    price $325,000
23. 2025-10-28
    listed $349,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,967 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,168 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: +$201/yr (+$17/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,480
• − Property taxes: −$3,967
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − Depreciation: −$7,520
• Taxable loss: −$8,617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,068
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,079

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.79%
• Current HPI: 368.206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-26.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $259,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $279,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $299,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $325,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $349,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,967 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.