2162 Old Chemstrand Rd · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$200,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,135 sqft · SingleFamily · 153 Days on market

Built 1994 Good condition 0.31 ac lot $176/sqft · 11% below area Est $224k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One-car garage, situated on a 0.32-acre lot with a spacious backyard. The property features an updated kitchen and bathrooms, interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, and updated lighting and ceiling fans throughout. The primary bathroom includes a half bath with a cabinet featuring a granite countertop, mirror, lighting, and towel accessories. The hall bathroom offers a cabinet with granite countertop, mirror, and updated lighting

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• One-car garage
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• ONE-CAR GARAGE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR PAINT
• LAMINATE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. C. Lipscomb Elementary School (math 68% / reading 65%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 764 students, 52% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Escambia average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 511 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,439 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,153
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -10.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1087 New Haven Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,044 (-8%)	1mo	$200,000	$192	54
1051 New Haven Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+12%)	10mo	$215,000	$170	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-39,186
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,781
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $184,548

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-38	+0% $-107	+5% $-176	+10% $-245
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-171	+0% $-107	+5% $-43	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-56	base $-107	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1330 Lake Dr Unit A Cantonment, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$975	$1.28	23d	1	0.25mi
1608 Sunny Ridge Ln Cantonment, FL	2.0	1.0	712	$1,075	$1.51	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-01-19
    listed $227,500 Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    One-car garage, situated on a 0.32-acre lot with a spacious backyard. The property features an updated kitchen and bathrooms, interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, and updated lighting and ceiling fans throughout. The primary bathroom includes a half bath with a cabinet featuring a granite countertop, mirror, lighting, and towel accessories. The hall bathroom offers a cabinet with granite countertop, mirror, and updated lighting

17. 2021-12-10
    soldstatus $184,900 Sold 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Newly remodeled home with 1 car garage ready for new owners. Large lot 32 acres with very large backyard. Home has new updates from kitchen, baths, interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, all new lighting & ceiling fans throughout the home. Master bath has 1/2 bath with new cabinet with granite top, mirror, lighting and towel accessories. Full hall bath has new cabinet, granite countertop, mirror, lighting. HVAC is 2007. New blinds on all windows.

18. 2021-11-05
    status Pending 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Newly remodeled home with 1 car garage ready for new owners. Large lot 32 acres with very large backyard. Home has new updates from kitchen, baths, interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, all new lighting & ceiling fans throughout the home. Master bath has 1/2 bath with new cabinet with granite top, mirror, lighting and towel accessories. Full hall bath has new cabinet, granite countertop, mirror, lighting. HVAC is 2007. New blinds on all windows.

19. 2021-10-30
    price $194,900 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Newly remodeled home with 1 car garage ready for new owners. Large lot 32 acres with very large backyard. Home has new updates from kitchen, baths, interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, all new lighting & ceiling fans throughout the home. Master bath has 1/2 bath with new cabinet with granite top, mirror, lighting and towel accessories. Full hall bath has new cabinet, granite countertop, mirror, lighting. HVAC is 2007. New blinds on all windows.

20. 2021-10-25
    price $199,500 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Newly remodeled home with 1 car garage ready for new owners. Large lot 32 acres with very large backyard. Home has new updates from kitchen, baths, interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, all new lighting & ceiling fans throughout the home. Master bath has 1/2 bath with new cabinet with granite top, mirror, lighting and towel accessories. Full hall bath has new cabinet, granite countertop, mirror, lighting. HVAC is 2007. New blinds on all windows.

21. 2021-10-20
    price $204,900 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Newly remodeled home with 1 car garage ready for new owners. Large lot 32 acres with very large backyard. Home has new updates from kitchen, baths, interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, all new lighting & ceiling fans throughout the home. Master bath has 1/2 bath with new cabinet with granite top, mirror, lighting and towel accessories. Full hall bath has new cabinet, granite countertop, mirror, lighting. HVAC is 2007. New blinds on all windows.

22. 2021-10-15
    price $209,900 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Newly remodeled home with 1 car garage ready for new owners. Large lot 32 acres with very large backyard. Home has new updates from kitchen, baths, interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, all new lighting & ceiling fans throughout the home. Master bath has 1/2 bath with new cabinet with granite top, mirror, lighting and towel accessories. Full hall bath has new cabinet, granite countertop, mirror, lighting. HVAC is 2007. New blinds on all windows.

23. 2021-10-09
    listed $215,900 Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Newly remodeled home with 1 car garage ready for new owners. Large lot 32 acres with very large backyard. Home has new updates from kitchen, baths, interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, all new lighting & ceiling fans throughout the home. Master bath has 1/2 bath with new cabinet with granite top, mirror, lighting and towel accessories. Full hall bath has new cabinet, granite countertop, mirror, lighting. HVAC is 2007. New blinds on all windows.

24. 2012-05-15
    soldstatus $89,000
25. 2012-01-16
    listed $94,000
26. 2002-09-09
    soldstatus $71,500
27. 2002-04-15
    listed $71,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,748
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,140
• After-tax cash flow: $-142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with updated kitchens and bathrooms, fresh paint, and a spacious backyard. It is ready for new owners and would benefit from landscaping and HVAC upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both HVAC upgrade — increases comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both HVAC upgrade — increases comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzalez, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+218.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $227,500 PARMLS
• 2021-12-10 Sold (MLS) $184,900 PARMLS
• 2021-11-05 Pending — PARMLS
• 2021-10-30 Price Changed $194,900 PARMLS
• 2021-10-25 Price Changed $199,500 PARMLS
• 2021-10-20 Price Changed $204,900 PARMLS
• 2021-10-15 Price Changed $209,900 PARMLS
• 2021-10-09 Listed $215,900 PARMLS
• 2012-05-15 Sold (MLS) $89,000 PARMLS
• 2012-01-16 Listed $94,000 PARMLS
• 2002-09-09 Sold (MLS) $71,500 PARMLS
• 2002-04-15 Listed $71,500 PARMLS