Is 1044 Selene Sky Dr in Brookshire, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.6% cap rate and $-458/mo modeled cash flow at a $259,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1044 Selene Sky Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,372/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.79

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.1/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
1% rule +2.3/10.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
Schools +2.2/10.0
DSCR +1.3/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$259,990

1044 Selene Sky Dr · Brookshire, TX 77423

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,059 sqft lot Garage $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Baylor floor plan offers a functional and inviting layout with 1,476 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this single-story home combines comfort and efficiency to suit a variety of lifestyles. The open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and family areas, creating a spacious and welcoming environment perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The modern kitchen includes ample cabinetry, countertop space, and a central island, making meal prep and gatherings effortless. Large windows throughout the main living area bring in natural light, enhancing the home's bright and airy feel. The private owner's suite, located at the back of the home, offers a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath. Three additional bedrooms are positioned toward the front, ideal for children, guests, or a home office. A conveniently located laundry room and ample storage add everyday functionality. Designed for modern living, the Baylor floor plan balances open gathering spaces with private bedrooms, delivering the perfect blend of comfort, versatility, and style- all within a smart, efficient footprint that makes this home both practical and beautifully livable.

Key facts

Community with pool
Large outdoor space
Sprinkler system

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-458 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (1.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (8.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $229k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1559 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $228,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.73% ✗
Cap rate: 4.59%
Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
DSCR: 0.73
GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $322,990
List price: $259,990
Delta: -19.51%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2000 Luminous Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,476 (0%)	0mo	$259,990	$176	97
1052 Selene Sky Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (+7%)	0mo	$289,990	$184	83
3037 Helios Haven Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (+7%)	8mo	$286,990	$182	74
3053 Duskshine Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+8%)	3mo	$253,990	$159	67
3073 Duskshine Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+8%)	5mo	$314,990	$197	63
3029 Helios Haven Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,692 (+15%)	10mo	$299,000	$177	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -30.3%
Equity multiple: 0.02×
Total profit: $-88,389
Equity at exit: $48,159

10-year hold

IRR: -53.0%
Equity multiple: -0.56×
Total profit: $-141,030
Equity at exit: $27,926

Cash invested: $90,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 62 active · 18 under contract
Months of supply: 28.6 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $299,945 ($185/sqft)
Median days on market: 55 d
This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +18.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

Rents YoY: -1.0%
Active inventory: 1559
Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,372 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,694
Tax est. 1.5%: −$404 /mo · $4,845/yr
Insurance: −$135
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
Net cashflow: $-458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,952

Max offer price $256,656

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-347	+0% $-458	+5% $-570	+10% $-682
Rent	-10% $-646	-5% $-552	+0% $-458	+5% $-365	+10% $-271
Rate	-1.0pp $-296	-0.5pp $-376	base $-458	+0.5pp $-542	+1.0pp $-627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $80,748
Closing costs: $9,690
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Sunterra Property Owners associationAnnual association fee of $1,200Community pool

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
Construction: Built in 2026Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorComposition roof
Exterior features: FenceSprinkler/irrigationPrivate yardBack yard fencingSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level) — approximately 14x10Bedroom (First level) — approximately 11x10Bedroom (First level) — approximately 11x10Bedroom (First level) — approximately 10x10Total of 4 rooms
Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Ventilation
Interior features: Breakfast barHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryQuartz countersCeiling fan(s)Kitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $259,990 Active 194 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $259,990 Active 193 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $259,990 Active 192 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $259,990 Active 191 DOM
2026-11-04

statusdays on market $259,990 Active 190 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 188 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 187 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 186 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 185 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 184 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 183 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 182 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 181 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 180 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 179 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 178 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 177 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 176 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 175 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 174 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 173 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 172 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 171 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 170 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 169 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 168 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 167 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 166 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 165 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 164 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 163 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 162 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 161 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 160 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 159 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 158 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 157 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 156 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 155 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 154 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 153 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 152 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 151 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 150 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 149 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 148 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 147 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 146 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 145 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $259,990 Active Under Contract 144 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,461
− Mortgage interest: −$18,092
− Property taxes: −$4,845
− Insurance: −$1,615
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,277
− Management: −$2,277
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$9,396
Taxable loss: −$11,241

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,698
After-tax cash flow: $-2,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,380–$22,140 screening

This single-family home in Sunterra Lakes is in good condition with a modern kitchen and fresh paint. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Lighting — Upgrading lighting can improve the home's ambiance and energy efficiency. ↑
Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value. ↑
Both Smart home integration — Adding smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to a wider range of buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting buyers/tenants who value these features. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Royal ISD
NCES district ID: 4838190
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $41,059
Composite: 19.55/100
National rank: #8760
State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

Score: 62/100
State rank: #960
US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Waller County · 60,772 people
City population: 18,767
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 18,767
Household income: $84,490
Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
Current HPI: 204.8709
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-04-28 Price Changed $267,990 HARMLS
2026-04-28 Listed $278,990 HARMLS
2026-04-07 Listed $267,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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