3006 Messanie St · St. Joseph, MO 64501

$139,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 240 Days on market

Built 1917 6,250 sqft lot $121/sqft · at area comps Est $141k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1.5 story home with beautiful hardwood floors!

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• Built 1917
• Listed 239 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($689/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $115,354 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,118
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -1.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3117 Sylvanie St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-3%)	3mo	$189,900	$170	78
2906 Lafayette St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,165 (+1%)	2mo	$145,000	$124	76
3223 Penn St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (-1%)	1mo	$156,000	$137	65
2821 Edmond St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,045 (-9%)	6mo	$154,900	$148	60
2828 Francis St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (-12%)	3mo	$127,900	$125	55
2627 Renick St	0.68mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (0%)	7mo	$99,000	$86	53
3019 Edmond St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (+13%)	5mo	$155,000	$119	53
1308 S 32nd St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,063 (-8%)	4mo	$149,900	$141	48
2918 Penn St	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,286 (+12%)	7mo	$149,900	$117	48
1514 S 30th St	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (+13%)	4mo	$219,900	$169	38
3518 Lafayette St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,307 (+14%)	2mo	$140,000	$107	36
2517 Faraon St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,286 (+12%)	6mo	$85,000	$66	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-18,913
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-11,953
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64501

• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,154 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $804/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,081

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $97	+0% $57	+5% $18	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $12	+0% $57	+5% $103	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $93	base $57	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1616 S 25th St Saint Joseph, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	45d	1	0.93mi
2901 Frederick Ave Saint Joseph, MO	2.0–3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	1.14mi
303 S 13th St St Joseph, MO	3.0	1.5	1000	$950	$0.95	45d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 224 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 220 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    status Active 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Charming 1.5 story home with beautiful hardwood floors!

17. 2026-04-26
    status Pending 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Charming 1.5 story home with beautiful hardwood floors!

18. 2026-04-03
    status Active 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Charming 1.5 story home with beautiful hardwood floors!

19. 2026-03-12
    status Pending 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Charming 1.5 story home with beautiful hardwood floors!

20. 2026-03-06
    price $139,000 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Charming 1.5 story home with beautiful hardwood floors!

21. 2026-02-05
    price $144,000 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Charming 1.5 story home with beautiful hardwood floors!

22. 2025-10-15
    price $145,000 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Charming 1.5 story home with beautiful hardwood floors!

23. 2025-09-23
    listed $150,000 Active 55-char remark

    Show marketing remark (55 chars)

    Charming 1.5 story home with beautiful hardwood floors!

24. 2015-01-06
    soldstatus
25. 2015-01-05
    soldstatus 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    All new and updated 4 bedroom, 2 baths, home with main floor laundry, beautiful wood floors, huge kitchen and full basement for storage. Off street parking with garage. Includes Refrigerator, dishwasher, large stove, washer, & dryer. Upstairs has a large bonus playroom.

26. 2014-06-17
    listed $84,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    All new and updated 4 bedroom, 2 baths, home with main floor laundry, beautiful wood floors, huge kitchen and full basement for storage. Off street parking with garage. Includes Refrigerator, dishwasher, large stove, washer, & dryer. Upstairs has a large bonus playroom.

27. 2013-09-12
    soldstatus
28. 2013-04-29
    listed $44,900
29. 1994-07-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $804 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,348 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 67.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$804
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,107
• − Management: −$1,107
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$408
• After-tax cash flow: $1,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• County: Buchanan County · 32,150 people
• City population: 44,382
• Metro: St. Joseph, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 10,689
• Household income: $46,731
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.20%
• Current HPI: 157.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Joseph, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+209.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $139,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $144,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $145,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listed $150,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-01-05 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-17 Listed $84,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-12 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-29 Listed $44,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $804 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.