3971 Cohen Dr #739 · Zellwood, FL 32798

$129,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,358 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1990 6,016 sqft lot Est $151k · 14% under $244/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ucked inside Central Florida's premier 55+ golf course community, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers the relaxed lifestyle Zellwood Station is known for. Step inside to a bright, open living and dining area with vaulted ceilings, a custom pendant light, and a wall of windows that floods the space with natural light. The kitchen is generously sized with a full appliance package, skylight, ample cabinet storage, decorative glass-front uppers, and a pass-through that keeps the cook connected to the action. The split-bedroom layout gives you a private primary suite featuring vaulted ceilings, dual closets, a separate dressing vanity with double sinks, and an en-suite bath. Two addi

Key facts

• Swimming pools
• 6,016 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• BRIGHT OPEN LIVING AREA
• EXPANSIVE SCREENED LANAI
• FINISHED EXTERIOR STORAGE ROOM
• CLUBHOUSE WITH RESTAURANT
• SWIMMING POOLS
• TENNIS AND PICKLEBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees $2,928
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $244); Association requires approval; Association amenities include 24-hour guard, cable TV, pool, escrow reserves, internet, and management; Community amenities: fitness center, golf, pool, tennis courts, association-owned recreation, deed restrictions, special community restrictions, golf carts allowed, no truck/RV/motorcycle parking, buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport with 1 space
• Security: 24-hour guard (community amenity)
• Utilities: No water source listed; Other sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Southwest facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: No dedicated laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (18.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#248 in FL, #3,918 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, health & safety D-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Zellwood Elementary (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 493 students, 55% FRL); Wolf Lake Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,194 students, 45% FRL); Apopka High (math 19% / reading 47%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 3,507 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,190 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,738
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3768 Diamond Oak Way #626	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,312 (-3%)	9mo	$145,200	$111	72
3644 Parway Rd #1149	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,538 (+13%)	1mo	$235,000	$153	54
3366 Evergreen Rd #1701	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	3mo	$124,000	$99	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,873
• Equity at exit: $54,847

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $30,396
• Equity at exit: $81,823

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32798

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,310 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,277/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$244
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $106,190

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-98	+0% $-135	+5% $-172	+10% $-208
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-187	+0% $-135	+5% $-83	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-69	-0.5pp $-102	base $-135	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $244 · $2,928/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,999 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,999 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,999 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,999 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,999 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,999 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,999 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,999 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,999 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,999 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,999 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,999 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,999 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,999 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,999 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $129,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,277 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,277 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,277
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − HOA: −$2,928
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$3,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$891
• After-tax cash flow: $-726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zellwood

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #248
• US rank: #3918

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zellwood, FL
• City population: 2,159
• Population (ZIP): 2,159

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 254.7681
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $129,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,277 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.