12 Clove Rd · Salisbury Mills, NY 12577

$429,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1800 0.54 ac lot $235/sqft · 14% below area Est $522k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully renovated home offering stunning mountain views. This move-in-ready property features a gorgeous blue kitchen with brand-new stainless steel GE appliances, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers generous closet space, accompanied by two additional well-sized bedrooms. Enjoy outdoor living on the large covered deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting while taking in the scenic surroundings. Situated on just over half an acre, the property also features a 4-6 car driveway and ample outdoor space. Conveniently located .9 miles from the Salisbury Mills Train Station and less than 6 miles from Stewart International Airport, this home offers a perfect blend of style, space, accessibility, and scenery-this home is not to be missed.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• 5 parking spots
• Built 1800

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $399k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $340k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,115 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtonville Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #288 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Washingtonville Middle School (math 21% / reading 50%, grade F, #473 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 900 students, 35% FRL); Washingtonville Senior High School (math 92% / reading 89%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,318 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 16% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $429k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $339,953 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $522,419
• List price: $429,000
• Delta: -17.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2058 Ny-94	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,891 (+4%)	8mo	$350,000	$185	72
3 Hope Chapel Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (+2%)	21mo	$250,000	$135	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-80,205
• Equity at exit: $63,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-83,651
• Equity at exit: $37,092

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12577

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$425 /mo · $5,096/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,612

Max offer price $399,403

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $-46	+0% $-168	+5% $-289	+10% $-410
Rent	-10% $-436	-5% $-302	+0% $-168	+5% $-33	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-58	base $-168	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-14
   listed $429,000 Active 781-char remark

   Show marketing remark (781 chars)

   Fully renovated home offering stunning mountain views. This move-in-ready property features a gorgeous blue kitchen with brand-new stainless steel GE appliances, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers generous closet space, accompanied by two additional well-sized bedrooms. Enjoy outdoor living on the large covered deck, ideal for relaxing or hosting while taking in the scenic surroundings. Situated on just over half an acre, the property also features a 4-6 car driveway and ample outdoor space. Conveniently located .9 miles from the Salisbury Mills Train Station and less than 6 miles from Stewart International Airport, this home offers a perfect blend of style, space, accessibility, and scenery-this home is not to be missed.

2. 2025-06-23
   soldstatus $170,000
3. 2025-02-18
   soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,096 · $425/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,173 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,077/yr (+$90/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$5,096
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,264
• − Management: −$3,264
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$9,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,276
• After-tax cash flow: $266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630030
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,379
• Composite: 48.15/100
• National rank: #2178
• State rank: #288 of 590 in NY

Livability — Salisbury Mills

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1115
• US rank: #22873

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salisbury Mills, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,613

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.89%
• Current HPI: 281.8949
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+243.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $429,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,096 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.