1508 Brookville Circle Cir · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$339,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2011 0.46 ac lot $241/sqft · waterfront premium Est $446k · 24% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lake life in town! This spacious one level home was originally built in 2011 with a 2024 addition that added 2 bedrooms, a full bath, and a basement rec-room/mother-in-law suite with its own full bath and exterior entrance, perfect for guest, in-laws, or rental potential. Offering 5 bedrooms and 4 full baths! This home features main level living, a primary suite with private bath, walk in closet, main level laundry, elec. fireplace w/ built-in bookcases, and all appliances convey. The heat Pump is less than 3 years old. Home is Situated on . 45 acres, backing up to Lakeland Lake. Enjoy peaceful water views from the large rear concrete patio and pergola perfect for grilling and entertainin

Key facts

• One level home
• 2024 addition
• Mother-in-law suite

Tags

• ONE LEVEL HOME
• 2024 ADDITION
• BASEMENT REC-ROOM
• MOTHER-IN-LAW SUITE
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.459 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Paved off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built with a foundation and partial below-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Waterfront access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating); Has heating
• Interior features: Skylights; Fireplace (1); Basement with partial finish, sump pump, and walk-out access; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry closet with washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-763 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (48.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 475 students, 90% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $339k implies a 976% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,542 (48.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.65%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $446,060
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -24.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Farley Branch Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+0%)	3mo	$325,000	$231	73
1231 Lakeview Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+10%)	11mo	$290,000	$188	70
1201 Lakeview Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,419 (+1%)	20mo	$271,900	$192	69
1202 Lakeview Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+2%)	20mo	$287,900	$201	69
136 Yorkshire Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+3%)	16mo	$228,900	$158	68
1034 Oakmont Circle Cir	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,298 (-8%)	8mo	$225,000	$173	56
1028 Oakmont Cir	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,299 (-8%)	17mo	$220,000	$169	48
101 Ridgeline Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-14%)	11mo	$320,000	$263	39
1007 Grand View Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+14%)	6mo	$269,000	$168	39
310 Cornerstone St	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,607 (+14%)	16mo	$370,000	$230	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-99,895
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-133,892
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 16.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,585/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,702

Max offer price $204,140

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-572	-5% $-667	+0% $-763	+5% $-859	+10% $-955
Rent	-10% $-901	-5% $-832	+0% $-763	+5% $-695	+10% $-626
Rate	-1.0pp $-593	-0.5pp $-677	base $-763	+0.5pp $-851	+1.0pp $-941

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
503 Barrington Way Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.5	1545	$1,795	$1.16	15d	1	0.56mi
419 Rotunda St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,875	$1.34	23d	1	0.69mi
419 Rotunda St #2001 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,875	$1.30	45d	1	0.69mi
302 Capstone Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	45d	1	0.70mi
318 Meridian St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,995	$1.25	45d	1	0.70mi
556 Leesville Rd #306 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1520	$2,100	$1.38	45d	1	0.71mi
556 Leesville Rd Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,695	$1.06	15d	1	0.71mi
211 Meridian St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1815	$2,300	$1.27	15d	1	0.71mi
121 Colonnade St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	45d	1	0.73mi
119 Cornerstone St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,595	$1.18	23d	1	0.76mi
120 Portico St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	45d	1	0.78mi
203 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1143	$1,585	$1.39	15d	20	0.79mi
105 Capital St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,449	$1.45	15d	14	0.82mi
100 Capstone Dr #303 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1027	$2,250	$2.19	45d	1	0.89mi
209 Old Graves Mill Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1313	$1,430	$1.09	15d	7	0.93mi
151 Kitty Hawk Sq Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,450	$0.81	23d	1	1.04mi
240 Beverly Hills Cir Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1402	$1,756	$1.25	23d	10	1.06mi
110 Aaron Pl #605 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,795	$1.18	15d	1	1.11mi
110 Aaron Pl #611 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,925	$1.29	23d	1	1.11mi
48 Walton Dr Unit 48 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	887	$875	$0.99	45d	1	1.15mi
501 Bent Oak Ct Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,900	$1.52	45d	1	1.28mi
142 Mesena Dr Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1173	$1,275	$1.09	45d	1	1.28mi
1229 Wood Rd Unit C Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	1	1.34mi
120 Clubhouse Dr Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$1,325	$1.20	15d	1	1.36mi
1816 Wards Ferry Rd Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.5	1432	$825	$0.58	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $339,000 Active 999-char remark
2. 2010-10-08
   soldstatus $31,500
3. 2009-08-28
   soldstatus $51,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,585 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,780 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$195/yr (+$16/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$2,585
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$15,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,753
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+560.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $339,000 LMLS
• 2010-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records
• 2009-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $51,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,585 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.