14315 Core Meadows Dr · Texas City, TX 77510

$398,490

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,621 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition Est $419k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover spacious living and modern design in the Cardinale floor plan-now available on oversized 60' homesites in Lago Mar, a vibrant master-planned community located in Texas City, Texas. This thoughtfully designed one-story home offers 4 generously sized bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms and a three-car garage, ideal for growing families or multigenerational living. The open-concept layout connects the gourmet kitchen, dining area, and expansive family room, making it perfect for entertaining or relaxing together. The kitchen features a large island, walk-in pantry, and an optional built-in appliance package for added style and convenience. Just off the dining area, step outside to a covered pa

Key facts

• Cardinale floor plan
• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• CARDINALE FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED 60 HOMESITES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $399,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area of 2621 (measurement provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Cardinale plan; Active listing (last modified 2026-06-06)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $398k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $363k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $363k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $363,000 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $419,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2816 Mackinac Bay Dr	0.29mi	4/3.5	2,666 (+2%)	1mo	$452,990	$170	81
2820 Mackinac Bay Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,517 (-4%)	2mo	$441,990	$176	70
14318 Lunan Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,280 (-13%)	1mo	$364,987	$160	66
3214 Bolt Rope Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,452 (-6%)	1mo	$339,990	$139	65
14102 Baikal Manor Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,545 (-3%)	3mo	$349,990	$138	60
13614 Hartwell Bend Dr	0.71mi	4/4.0	2,679 (+2%)	2mo	$479,990	$179	58
13602 Hartwell Bend Dr	0.75mi	4/4.0	2,679 (+2%)	1mo	$499,990	$187	57
14002 Baikal Manor Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,486 (-5%)	2mo	$352,990	$142	55
13618 Hartwell Bend Dr	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,875 (+10%)	1mo	$439,990	$153	48
13601 Fairway Arbor Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,377 (-9%)	1mo	$394,990	$166	45
14030 Baikal Manor Dr	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,930 (+12%)	2mo	$367,990	$126	42
14010 Baikal Manor Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,264 (-14%)	2mo	$343,990	$152	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-57,268
• Equity at exit: $59,416

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-40,311
• Equity at exit: $34,454

Cash invested: $111,577 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,090
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$498 /mo · $5,977/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$762
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,486

Max offer price $398,490

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $252	+0% $114	+5% $-24	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-30	+0% $114	+5% $257	+10% $401
Rate	-1.0pp $315	-0.5pp $215	base $114	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,622
• Closing costs: $11,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $398,490 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $398,990 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $398,990 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $398,990 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $398,990 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $398,990 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,990 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,990 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $399,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,322
• − Property taxes: −$5,977
• − Insurance: −$1,992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,485
• − Management: −$3,485
• − Depreciation: −$11,592
• Taxable loss: −$5,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $2,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with average systems and average exterior. Painting and flooring replacement would significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears slightly faded
• Minor Flooring — Flooring shows slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Flooring replacement — New flooring improves comfort and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears slightly faded	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Flooring shows slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — New flooring improves comfort and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• City population: 49,936
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B