4855 Juniper Ave · Croton, MI 49337

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 1979 0.50 ac lot $119/sqft · 16% below area Est $173k · 16% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4855 Juniper Ridge Avenue, nestled between the Croton and Hardy Dams in beautiful Newaygo, MI. This rustic 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a rare blend of comfort, character, and outdoor access -- perfect for first-time buyers, savvy investors, or those seeking a peaceful cottage getaway. Enjoy your morning coffee on the cozy front porch, then head down to your private deeded access on the Muskegon River for a day of fishing, kayaking, or simply soaking up the serenity. The home sits on a partially fenced lot and includes a 24x28 pole barn, ideal for storing all your outdoor gear, tools, or toys. With its wooded charm and unbeatable location between two of Michigan's most popular recreational dams, this property is a must-see. Whether you're looking to settle in, invest, or escape for the weekend, this home delivers the rustic lifestyle you've been searching for. Schedule your private tour today. Opportunities like this don't last long!

Key facts

• Partially fenced lot
• Wooded charm
• 24x28 pole barn

Tags

• PRIVATE DEEDED ACCESS
• COZY FRONT PORCH
• PARTIALLY FENCED LOT
• 24X28 POLE BARN
• WOODED CHARM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Electricity available; High-speed internet
• Home design: Ranch-style residence; Built in 1979
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Located on 0.5-acre lot; Pole barn on property; Waterfront on Muskegon River

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has central cooling
• Interior features: Ramped entrance; Replacement windows; Seven total rooms; Slab basement
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($68/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Newaygo Public School District (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #349 of 540 in MI (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Newaygo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newaygo County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $116,316 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,837
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -16.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6390 Lake St	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,245 (+2%)	18mo	$332,500	$267	48
6264 Lake St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,138 (-7%)	22mo	$374,725	$329	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-23,171
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-19,861
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49337

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,163 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,109/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,156

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $145,000 Active 33 DOM

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 4855 Juniper Ridge Avenue, nestled between the Croton and Hardy Dams in beautiful Newaygo, MI. This rustic 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a rare blend of comfort, character, and outdoor access -- perfect for first-time buyers, savvy investors, or those seeking a peaceful cottage getaway. Enjoy your morning coffee on the cozy front porch, then head down to your private deeded access on the Muskegon River for a day of fishing, kayaking, or simply soaking up the serenity. The home sits on a partially fenced lot and includes a 24x28 pole barn, ideal for storing all your outdoor gear, tools, or toys. With its wooded charm and unbeatable location between two of Michigan's most popular recreational dams, this property is a must-see. Whether you're looking to settle in, invest, or escape for the weekend, this home delivers the rustic lifestyle you've been searching for. Schedule your private tour today. Opportunities like this don't last long!

13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    status Active 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 4855 Juniper Ridge Avenue, nestled between the Croton and Hardy Dams in beautiful Newaygo, MI. This rustic 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a rare blend of comfort, character, and outdoor access -- perfect for first-time buyers, savvy investors, or those seeking a peaceful cottage getaway. Enjoy your morning coffee on the cozy front porch, then head down to your private deeded access on the Muskegon River for a day of fishing, kayaking, or simply soaking up the serenity. The home sits on a partially fenced lot and includes a 24x28 pole barn, ideal for storing all your outdoor gear, tools, or toys. With its wooded charm and unbeatable location between two of Michigan's most popular recreational dams, this property is a must-see. Whether you're looking to settle in, invest, or escape for the weekend, this home delivers the rustic lifestyle you've been searching for. Schedule your private tour today. Opportunities like this don't last long!

17. 2026-05-04
    historical 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 4855 Juniper Ridge Avenue, nestled between the Croton and Hardy Dams in beautiful Newaygo, MI. This rustic 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a rare blend of comfort, character, and outdoor access -- perfect for first-time buyers, savvy investors, or those seeking a peaceful cottage getaway. Enjoy your morning coffee on the cozy front porch, then head down to your private deeded access on the Muskegon River for a day of fishing, kayaking, or simply soaking up the serenity. The home sits on a partially fenced lot and includes a 24x28 pole barn, ideal for storing all your outdoor gear, tools, or toys. With its wooded charm and unbeatable location between two of Michigan's most popular recreational dams, this property is a must-see. Whether you're looking to settle in, invest, or escape for the weekend, this home delivers the rustic lifestyle you've been searching for. Schedule your private tour today. Opportunities like this don't last long!

18. 2026-04-30
    listed $150,000 Active 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 4855 Juniper Ridge Avenue, nestled between the Croton and Hardy Dams in beautiful Newaygo, MI. This rustic 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a rare blend of comfort, character, and outdoor access -- perfect for first-time buyers, savvy investors, or those seeking a peaceful cottage getaway. Enjoy your morning coffee on the cozy front porch, then head down to your private deeded access on the Muskegon River for a day of fishing, kayaking, or simply soaking up the serenity. The home sits on a partially fenced lot and includes a 24x28 pole barn, ideal for storing all your outdoor gear, tools, or toys. With its wooded charm and unbeatable location between two of Michigan's most popular recreational dams, this property is a must-see. Whether you're looking to settle in, invest, or escape for the weekend, this home delivers the rustic lifestyle you've been searching for. Schedule your private tour today. Opportunities like this don't last long!

19. 2026-04-30
    listed $150,000 Active 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 4855 Juniper Ridge Avenue, nestled between the Croton and Hardy Dams in beautiful Newaygo, MI. This rustic 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a rare blend of comfort, character, and outdoor access -- perfect for first-time buyers, savvy investors, or those seeking a peaceful cottage getaway. Enjoy your morning coffee on the cozy front porch, then head down to your private deeded access on the Muskegon River for a day of fishing, kayaking, or simply soaking up the serenity. The home sits on a partially fenced lot and includes a 24x28 pole barn, ideal for storing all your outdoor gear, tools, or toys. With its wooded charm and unbeatable location between two of Michigan's most popular recreational dams, this property is a must-see. Whether you're looking to settle in, invest, or escape for the weekend, this home delivers the rustic lifestyle you've been searching for. Schedule your private tour today. Opportunities like this don't last long!

20. 2026-04-30
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 4855 Juniper Ridge Avenue, nestled between the Croton and Hardy Dams in beautiful Newaygo, MI. This rustic 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers a rare blend of comfort, character, and outdoor access -- perfect for first-time buyers, savvy investors, or those seeking a peaceful cottage getaway. Enjoy your morning coffee on the cozy front porch, then head down to your private deeded access on the Muskegon River for a day of fishing, kayaking, or simply soaking up the serenity. The home sits on a partially fenced lot and includes a 24x28 pole barn, ideal for storing all your outdoor gear, tools, or toys. With its wooded charm and unbeatable location between two of Michigan's most popular recreational dams, this property is a must-see. Whether you're looking to settle in, invest, or escape for the weekend, this home delivers the rustic lifestyle you've been searching for. Schedule your private tour today. Opportunities like this don't last long!

21. 2025-12-04
    historical
22. 2025-08-08
    status Active
23. 2025-08-08
    status Active
24. 2025-07-28
    status Pending
25. 2025-07-28
    status Pending
26. 2025-07-28
    historical
27. 2025-07-17
    listed $150,000 Active
28. 2025-07-17
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,109 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,671 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$562/yr (+$47/mo · 50.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,109
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,450
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$588
• After-tax cash flow: $656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newaygo Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2625320
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,018
• Composite: 26.52/100
• National rank: #7199
• State rank: #349 of 540 in MI

Livability — Croton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,030

Population outlook (Newaygo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,371 people
• By 2030: 44,879 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 41,107 · -11.4%
• By 2050: 36,800 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 27,507 · -40.7%
• By 2100: 18,600 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 14% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newaygo

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 27.9% · R 70.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.83%
• Current HPI: 310.1533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $145,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $145,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-30 Listed $150,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-30 Listed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-08 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-08-08 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-28 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-07-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-07-17 Listed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-17 Listed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,109 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.