1511 Morrell Ave · Dallas, TX 75203

$564,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,681 sqft · Land · 64 Days on market

Built 2026 7,754 sqft lot $211/sqft · 34% above area Est $420k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Coming Soon – Spring 2026. New construction in Oak Cliff minutes from Downtown Dallas. 2-story, 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 2 half baths, and 2-car garage. Open-concept design with flex space and electric fireplace. Upstairs game room features sink, under-counter fridge, and sliding glass doors—perfect for entertaining. Builder reserves right to change pricing, features, and specs. Square footage approx.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Under-counter fridge
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• FLEX SPACE
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• UNDER-COUNTER FRIDGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $565k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (48.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,914/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 948% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$97k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($531k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,411 (48.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.06%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $420,462
• List price: $564,999
• Delta: 34.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $231,171
• Equity at exit: $508,996

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $718,148
• Equity at exit: $1,097,669

Cash invested: $158,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75203

• Home prices YoY: 31.8%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 16.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,914 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,963
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,004/yr
• Insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-1,063

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,260

Max offer price $377,182

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $141,250
• Closing costs: $16,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1422 Claude St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	2016	$2,411	$1.20	43d	1	0.09mi
1339 Hendricks Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	2152	$4,000	$1.86	43d	1	0.23mi
1322 Strickland St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	2053	$3,299	$1.61	7d	1	0.29mi
1218 Grant St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2057	$2,699	$1.31	22d	1	0.38mi
1218 Grant St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2057	$2,699	$1.31	24d	1	0.38mi
519 High St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1869	$6,000	$3.21	43d	1	0.44mi
1131 Forester Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	1866	$2,600	$1.39	43d	1	0.52mi
512 Avenue L Dallas, TX	3.0	4.0	2551	$3,400	$1.33	7d	1	0.78mi
312 S Lancaster Ave Unit 104 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1941	$2,750	$1.42	43d	1	1.19mi
815 E 5th St Unit 209 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1946	$3,200	$1.64	24d	1	1.31mi
604 N Ewing Ave Unit 107 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1946	$3,150	$1.62	43d	1	1.32mi
512 N Lancaster Ave #1 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1980	$3,450	$1.74	43d	1	1.33mi
512 N Lancaster Ave Unit 6 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1980	$3,150	$1.59	11d	1	1.33mi
512 N Lancaster Ave Unit 1-2 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1980	$2,950	$1.49	43d	1	1.33mi
324 N Patton Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2300	$3,499	$1.52	43d	1	1.40mi
217 W Yarmouth St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2155	$3,500	$1.62	43d	1	1.48mi
308 E 7th St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2399	$3,600	$1.50	43d	1	1.49mi
306 E 7th St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2399	$3,900	$1.63	14d	1	1.49mi
428 N Patton Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2399	$3,900	$1.63	6d	1	1.49mi
219 W Yarmouth St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2155	$3,500	$1.62	43d	1	1.49mi
302 E 7th St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2399	$3,600	$1.50	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $564,999 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $564,999 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $564,999 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $530,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $530,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $530,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $530,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $530,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $530,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $530,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $530,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $530,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-04-13
    listed $530,000 Active 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Coming Soon – Spring 2026. New construction in Oak Cliff minutes from Downtown Dallas. 2-story, 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 2 half baths, and 2-car garage. Open-concept design with flex space and electric fireplace. Upstairs game room features sink, under-counter fridge, and sliding glass doors—perfect for entertaining. Builder reserves right to change pricing, features, and specs. Square footage approx.

14. 2026-04-01
    historical
15. 2026-01-01
    listed $530,000 Active
16. 2001-05-04
    soldstatus
17. 1984-06-02
    soldstatus
18. 1980-11-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,339 · $862/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,335/yr (+$695/mo · 415.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,649
• − Property taxes: −$2,004
• − Insurance: −$2,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,798
• − Management: −$2,798
• − Depreciation: −$16,436
• Taxable loss: −$23,540
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,650
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,775
• Household income: $46,989
• Rent vs Own: 62.1% rent · 37.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 948.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 31% Two or more races 17% White 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 51% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 86.64%
• Current HPI: 358.9507
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.72%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $530,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $530,000 NTREIS
• 2001-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1980-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,004 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.