12765 Shiloh Church Rd · Dahlgren Center, VA 20664

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 791 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1940 1.50 ac lot $101/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Value is in the land, the home is a tear down and not safe to enter. Great lot to build your dream home. Bring your own builder or use ours. Many options and floor plans to choose from, call today to get the process started. Please call the listing agent for details.

Key facts

• Great lot
• 1.5 acre lot
• Built 1940

Tags

• GREAT LOT
• BUILD YOUR DREAM HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#531 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, employment A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $80k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.24%
• DSCR: 3.46
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,582
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -66.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $52,688
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $130,530
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20664

• Home prices YoY: -2.7%
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,543/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $1,030

Break-even live

Break-even rent $735

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,075	-5% $1,052	+0% $1,030	+5% $1,007	+10% $985
Rent	-10% $869	-5% $949	+0% $1,030	+5% $1,110	+10% $1,191
Rate	-1.0pp $1,070	-0.5pp $1,050	base $1,030	+0.5pp $1,009	+1.0pp $988

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $79,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-03-13
    historical
15. 2026-02-28
    listed $79,900 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Value is in the land, the home is a tear down and not safe to enter. Great lot to build your dream home. Bring your own builder or use ours. Many options and floor plans to choose from, call today to get the process started. Please call the listing agent for details.

16. 2026-02-16
    listed $79,900 Active
17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-02-10
    listed $79,900 Active
19. 2024-12-31
    historical
20. 2024-04-25
    listed $80,000 Active
21. 2023-12-31
    historical
22. 2023-03-01
    status Active
23. 2023-02-28
    historical
24. 2022-06-06
    status Active
25. 2022-06-01
    historical
26. 2022-02-17
    listed $65,000 Active
27. 2010-10-15
    soldstatus $25,000
28. 2010-09-29
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,543
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $11,809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,834
• After-tax cash flow: $9,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

Livability — Dahlgren Center

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #531
• US rank: #24335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 658
• Population (ZIP): 3,121

Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.20%
• Current HPI: 261.9526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+219.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-10 Listed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-25 Listed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-01 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-02-17 Listed $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2010-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,543 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.