443 W Cherry St · Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,002 sqft · Other · 103 Days on market

Built 1940 1,306 sqft lot $70/sqft · 30% above area Est $54k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very well maintained home in Mt Carmel. This home has 2 Bedrooms 1 Bath and has potential for a 3rd Bedroom in the Attic. Large Living Room and Kitchen. This is a perfect starter home or someone looking for low maintenance property.

Key facts

• 1,306 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 103 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 12.4% in Mount Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $70k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $63,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.52%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,681
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: 30.40%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $65,748
• Equity at exit: $45,391

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.08×
• Total profit: $158,442
• Equity at exit: $83,538

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $657/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $694

Break-even live

Break-even rent $571

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $734	-5% $714	+0% $694	+5% $675	+10% $655
Rent	-10% $580	-5% $637	+0% $694	+5% $752	+10% $809
Rate	-1.0pp $730	-0.5pp $712	base $694	+0.5pp $676	+1.0pp $658

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 W 4th St Mount Carmel, PA	3.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $70,000 Pending 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 88 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active Under Contract 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-10
    historical Active Under Contract 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Very well maintained home in Mt Carmel. This home has 2 Bedrooms 1 Bath and has potential for a 3rd Bedroom in the Attic. Large Living Room and Kitchen. This is a perfect starter home or someone looking for low maintenance property.

15. 2026-04-23
    price $70,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Very well maintained home in Mt Carmel. This home has 2 Bedrooms 1 Bath and has potential for a 3rd Bedroom in the Attic. Large Living Room and Kitchen. This is a perfect starter home or someone looking for low maintenance property.

16. 2026-03-25
    price $74,900 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Very well maintained home in Mt Carmel. This home has 2 Bedrooms 1 Bath and has potential for a 3rd Bedroom in the Attic. Large Living Room and Kitchen. This is a perfect starter home or someone looking for low maintenance property.

17. 2026-03-05
    listed $80,000 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Very well maintained home in Mt Carmel. This home has 2 Bedrooms 1 Bath and has potential for a 3rd Bedroom in the Attic. Large Living Room and Kitchen. This is a perfect starter home or someone looking for low maintenance property.

18. 2016-02-24
    soldstatus $23,500 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Come take a look at this beautifully well kept home. Updated kitchen and living room with new carpeting, laminate flooring and cast iron heat throughout. 2 bedrooms with full bath on second floor and possible 3 bedroom in attic. Call Lynn Kufta for a private showing at 570-274-3443.

19. 2015-11-24
    listed $26,000 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Come take a look at this beautifully well kept home. Updated kitchen and living room with new carpeting, laminate flooring and cast iron heat throughout. 2 bedrooms with full bath on second floor and possible 3 bedroom in attic. Call Lynn Kufta for a private showing at 570-274-3443.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $657 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$225/yr (+$19/mo · 34.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$657
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,836
• After-tax cash flow: $6,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+169.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Contingent — CSVBR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $70,000 CSVBR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $74,900 CSVBR
• 2026-03-05 Listed $80,000 CSVBR
• 2016-02-24 Sold (MLS) $23,500 CSVBR
• 2015-11-24 Listed $26,000 CSVBR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $657 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.