5781 Route 60 · Sinclairville, NY 14782

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,527 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1949 3.30 ac lot $65/sqft · 44% below area Est $177k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

5781 Route 60 - 3 bedroom, 1 full bathroom Cape Cod that sits on 3.3 acres with a 3 car detached garage. Updated kitchen with granite countertops, large living room, bonus den/sitting area with French doors to the side deck. Two first floor bedrooms and first floor laundry.

Key facts

• First floor laundry
• French doors
• Side deck

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BONUS DEN
• FRENCH DOORS
• SIDE DECK
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,062 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Cassadaga Valley Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #372 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $100k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.43%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,400
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -43.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Sinclair Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,344 (-12%)	7mo	$162,500	$121	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $27,471
• Equity at exit: $54,274

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $78,654
• Equity at exit: $91,747

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14782

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,894/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $160	-5% $132	+0% $103	+5% $75	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $58	+0% $103	+5% $149	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $129	base $103	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $100,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $115,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    5781 Route 60 - 3 bedroom, 1 full bathroom Cape Cod that sits on 3.3 acres with a 3 car detached garage. Updated kitchen with granite countertops, large living room, bonus den/sitting area with French doors to the side deck. Two first floor bedrooms and first floor laundry.

17. 2026-04-06
    price $120,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    5781 Route 60 - 3 bedroom, 1 full bathroom Cape Cod that sits on 3.3 acres with a 3 car detached garage. Updated kitchen with granite countertops, large living room, bonus den/sitting area with French doors to the side deck. Two first floor bedrooms and first floor laundry.

18. 2026-02-23
    listed $125,000 Active 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    5781 Route 60 - 3 bedroom, 1 full bathroom Cape Cod that sits on 3.3 acres with a 3 car detached garage. Updated kitchen with granite countertops, large living room, bonus den/sitting area with French doors to the side deck. Two first floor bedrooms and first floor laundry.

19. 2007-04-02
    soldstatus $61,480

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,894 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,894 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,894
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,107
• − Management: −$1,107
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$69
• After-tax cash flow: $1,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cassadaga Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606660
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $46,654
• Composite: 43.22/100
• National rank: #3059
• State rank: #372 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sinclairville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1062
• US rank: #21176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,010
• Population (ZIP): 2,010

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Current HPI: 383.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+87.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $120,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2007-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $61,480 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,894 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.