2106 Blue Orchid Ave · Plant City, FL 33565

$348,740

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,215 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $157/sqft · 9% below area Est $383k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner's suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 54 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $349k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Plant City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knights Elementary School (math 52% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 623 students, 70% FRL); Marshall Middle Magnet School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,089 students, 69% FRL); Plant City High School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,474 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,896/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $289,622 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,970
• List price: $348,740
• Delta: -9.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4030 Northern Key Dr	0.17mi	5/2.5	2,215 (0%)	12mo	$369,290	$167	82
4059 Radiant Mountain Dr	0.10mi	5/2.5	2,215 (0%)	18mo	$354,900	$160	81
2251 Blue Orchid Ave	0.34mi	5/2.5	2,215 (0%)	4mo	$349,500	$158	80
4052 Radiant Mountain Dr	0.11mi	5/2.5	2,215 (0%)	18mo	$379,990	$172	80
2728 Bryce Ravine Ave	0.30mi	5/2.5	2,215 (0%)	10mo	$337,440	$152	77
4004 Northern Key Dr	0.21mi	5/2.5	2,215 (0%)	16mo	$355,000	$160	77
3937 Northern Key Dr	0.27mi	5/2.5	2,389 (+8%)	3mo	$364,490	$153	72
2781 Bryce Ravine Ave	0.38mi	5/2.5	2,389 (+8%)	7mo	$342,440	$143	64
3818 N Maryland Ave	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,486 (+12%)	0mo	$445,000	$179	47
1705 Tropical Oasis Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,935 (-13%)	9mo	$358,590	$185	41
3653 Forest Path Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-13%)	15mo	$352,900	$182	32
3772 Capital Reserve Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-13%)	17mo	$349,900	$181	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-64,241
• Equity at exit: $51,998

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-65,772
• Equity at exit: $30,153

Cash invested: $97,647 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 52.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $366,168 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 66 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33565

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,896 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,829
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,231/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,051

Max offer price $331,079

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $-2	+0% $-122	+5% $-243	+10% $-363
Rent	-10% $-351	-5% $-236	+0% $-122	+5% $-8	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $-33	base $-122	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-304

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,185
• Closing costs: $10,462
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3852 Northern Key Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,599	$1.34	28d	1	0.33mi
3916 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,610	$1.17	29d	1	0.49mi
3916 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,610	$1.17	35d	1	0.49mi
3911 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,600	$1.17	73d	1	0.53mi
3872 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,395	$1.11	25d	1	0.76mi
3872 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,395	$1.11	23d	1	0.76mi
2318 Allium Roseum Ln Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,300	$1.27	7d	1	0.76mi
3615 Natural Trace St Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,350	$1.21	22d	1	0.80mi
2505 Victorious Falls Ave Plant City, FL	6.0	3.0	2614	$2,950	$1.13	19d	1	0.84mi
3747 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.5	2035	$2,695	$1.32	48d	1	0.88mi
3507 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2557	$2,495	$0.98	32d	1	0.98mi
1458 Tahitian Sunrise Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,345	$1.21	34d	1	1.06mi
3827 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,150	$1.14	73d	1	1.28mi
3809 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,800	$0.94	73d	1	1.33mi
3440 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,750	$1.06	73d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Spec
• Financial info: List price $368,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home, Boston planStatus: Active
• Exterior features: Address: 2106 Blue Orchid Ave, Plant City, FL 33565

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Boston plan)Living area approximately 2,215

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-08-08
   pricedays on market $348,740 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   price $347,240 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $346,740 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   price $346,740 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-08-05
   days on market $344,990 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-08-04
   days on market $344,990 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $344,990 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-07-31
   days on market $344,490 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $344,490 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $344,490 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $344,490 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $349,490 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $349,490 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $349,490 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $349,490 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $349,490 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,490 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $349,490 Active 32 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $349,490 Active 31 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,490 Active 29 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,490 Active 28 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $349,490 Active 27 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $349,490 Active 26 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $349,490 Active 25 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $368,490 Active 23 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $368,490 Active 22 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $368,490 Active 21 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $368,490 Active 20 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    price $368,490 Active 19 DOM
30. 2026-06-26
    days on market $367,490 Active 19 DOM
31. 2026-06-24
    days on market $367,490 Active 17 DOM
32. 2026-06-22
    days on market $367,490 Active 15 DOM
33. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $367,490 Active 14 DOM
34. 2026-06-18
    days on market $366,490 Active 11 DOM
35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $366,490 Active 10 DOM
36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $366,490 Active 9 DOM
37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $366,490 Active 8 DOM
38. 2026-06-13
    days on market $366,490 Active 6 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $366,490 Active 5 DOM
40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $366,490 Active 2 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    price $366,490 Active 1 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    remarks 296-char remark
43. 2026-06-08
    listed $365,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,535
• − Property taxes: −$5,231
• − Insurance: −$1,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,780
• − Management: −$2,780
• − Depreciation: −$10,145
• Taxable loss: −$7,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,791
• After-tax cash flow: $326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,075–$33,225 screening

This spacious two-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a clean layout. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint on the exterior to enhance curb appeal and a new carpet in the living room to improve comfort and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Replace the carpet in the living room — New carpet can improve comfort and reduce maintenance costs for renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Knights Elementary School D FL #1,152/2,144 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Marshall Middle Magnet School F FL #469/571 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Plant City High School F FL #312/667 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plant City, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,108
• Household income: $73,414
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.17%
• Current HPI: 347.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Spec
• Financial info: List price $368,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home, Boston planStatus: Active
• Exterior features: Address: 2106 Blue Orchid Ave, Plant City, FL 33565

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Boston plan)Living area approximately 2,215