806 Duncan Ave · Killeen, TX 76541

$105,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1955 7,057 sqft lot Est $153k · 32% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 806 Duncan. This property offers a bonus room with excellent potential with its 3 bedrooms and 1 and 0.5 bathrooms, ideal for rental or renovation projects. The home features a solid structure and functional layout, including a spacious living area, a kitchen ready for updates, and a sizable backyard. Located in a North Killeen with proximity to schools, shopping, and transportation.

Key facts

• Proximity to schools
• Sizable backyard
• Spacious living area

Tags

• BONUS ROOM WITH POTENTIAL
• SOLID STRUCTURE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• SIZABLE BACKYARD
• PROXIMITY TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($635/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.9% in Killeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, employment D.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,425 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,428
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1602 N 22nd St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+1%)	3mo	$196,000	$154	85
504 Alexander St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,218 (-4%)	3mo	$140,300	$115	58
501 N 16th St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,373 (+8%)	3mo	$99,000	$72	51
502 Cardinal Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,202 (-5%)	16mo	$145,000	$121	47
601 Cardinal Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-14%)	4mo	$146,800	$134	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.26% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $8,765
• Equity at exit: $42,907

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $27,929
• Equity at exit: $62,955

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76541

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,123 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,881/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1204 N 18th St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	0.12mi
1309 Carol Way Killeen, TX	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,350	$0.84	43d	1	0.18mi
1312 Carol Way Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1221	$1,100	$0.90	13d	1	0.19mi
1015 N 10th St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,100	$0.98	43d	1	0.25mi
1901 N 10th St Unit 3 Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	920	$745	$0.81	43d	1	0.27mi
1108 Stewart St Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	995	$1,150	$1.16	23d	1	0.30mi
1507 N 8th St Unit 8 Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$995	$0.89	23d	1	0.32mi
1208 Alexander St Killeen, TX	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	43d	1	0.33mi
1701 Elkins Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	918	$1,000	$1.09	13d	1	0.41mi
1703 Smith Dr Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	1176	$900	$0.77	23d	1	0.42mi
715 Cardinal Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1142	$800	$0.70	43d	1	0.42mi
1704 Smith Dr Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,000	$1.08	43d	1	0.45mi
905 Parmer Ave Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1672	$750	$0.45	43d	1	0.46mi
501 N 18th St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1286	$1,250	$0.97	23d	1	0.52mi
1901 Poage Ave Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	1596	$875	$0.55	43d	1	0.54mi
1915 Poage Ave Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$850	$0.97	43d	1	0.58mi
1206 Middleton St Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	1750	$800	$0.46	43d	1	0.60mi
705 Crockett Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1174	$1,095	$0.93	43d	1	0.63mi
1201 Greenwood Ave Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,350	$1.06	43d	1	0.63mi
1111 N College St Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$995	$0.81	13d	1	0.68mi
1203 N College St Unit 1203-207 Killeen, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$725	$0.74	43d	1	0.70mi
1309 Greenwood Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	925	$900	$0.97	21d	1	0.70mi
508 Patton Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	924	$1,150	$1.24	23d	1	0.70mi
1809 N W S Young Dr Unit 1B Killeen, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	43d	1	0.73mi
209 West Avenue A Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	876	$935	$1.07	13d	1	0.76mi
2303 Debra Cir Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1617	$1,600	$0.99	23d	1	0.77mi
505 W Church Ave Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,100	$0.95	13d	1	0.88mi
805 W Kern Rd Unit 807 Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1692	$775	$0.46	43d	1	0.91mi
2504 Lake Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1454	$1,295	$0.89	13d	1	0.92mi
514 McArthur Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	1084	$995	$0.92	43d	1	0.95mi
905 N Gilmer St Killeen, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,395	$1.51	13d	5	0.98mi
2208 Shoemaker Dr Unit A Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	928	$1,095	$1.18	23d	1	0.99mi
1717 Walton Walker Dr Unit 1717 Killeen, TX	3.0	1.5	1300	$895	$0.69	43d	1	0.99mi
2105 Creekwood Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,200	$1.10	43d	1	0.99mi
2107 Creekwood Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,250	$1.12	43d	1	1.00mi
2108 Carousel Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,195	$1.06	13d	1	1.02mi
901 Sissom Rd Unit 3 Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$875	$0.88	13d	1	1.02mi
1106 Williamson Dr Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$875	$0.97	43d	1	1.03mi
2003 Ruiz Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,199	$1.04	23d	1	1.03mi
906 Sissom Rd Apt 1 Killeen, TX	2.0	1.0	998	$875	$0.88	23d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2024-12-30
   price $90,000
2. 2024-12-18
   listed $105,000 Active
3. 2024-11-11
   status Pending
4. 2024-11-11
   status Pending
5. 2024-11-11
   status Pending
6. 2024-11-11
   historical
7. 2024-11-11
   historical
8. 2024-10-26
   listed $105,000 Active
9. 2024-10-25
   historical
10. 2024-10-24
    price $105,000
11. 2024-10-24
    price $105,000
12. 2024-10-20
    listed $107,500 Active
13. 2024-10-20
    listed $107,500 Active
14. 2024-10-04
    price
15. 2024-08-28
    price
16. 2024-08-28
    price $115,000
17. 2024-08-12
    listed Active
18. 2024-08-12
    listed $120,000 Active
19. 1967-04-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,881 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,881 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,881
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$1,020
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$245
• After-tax cash flow: $880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killeen, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,011
• Household income: $37,349
• Rent vs Own: 76.4% rent · 23.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 32% White 31% Black 27% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 25% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Current HPI: 168.1206
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.00%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $90,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-12-18 Listed $105,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-11-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-11-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-11-11 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2024-11-11 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-11-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-26 Listed $105,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-20 Listed $107,500 NTREIS
• 2024-10-20 Listed $107,500 HARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $115,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-12 Listed $120,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-12 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 1967-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,881 · +29.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.