1533 Keelen Dr · Dellwood, MO 63136

$97,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1964 7,056 sqft lot Est $128k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity to own this single-family home built in 1964 featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms. ***SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. ***

Key facts

• 7,056 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1964

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, crime D-.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($677 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.13%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,232
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1618 Keelen Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	936 (0%)	3mo	$160,000	$171	90
1716 Atmore Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	950 (+2%)	2mo	$130,000	$137	82
10615 Alliance Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	975 (+4%)	3mo	$119,900	$123	75
10515 Alliance Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,014 (+8%)	0mo	$112,900	$111	75
10418 Quaker Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,014 (+8%)	2mo	$64,900	$64	72
1646 Hudson Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,014 (+8%)	2mo	$164,500	$162	71
10719 Trask Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	900 (-4%)	3mo	$143,500	$159	67
10207 Tanner Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,014 (+8%)	4mo	$127,900	$126	57
10201 Doane Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,014 (+8%)	4mo	$125,000	$123	54
1923 Nashua Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,014 (+8%)	1mo	$149,900	$148	54
1354 Stein Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	982 (+5%)	2mo	$160,000	$163	53
1679 Maldon Ln	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-13%)	4mo	$85,000	$104	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $39,238
• Equity at exit: $48,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $110,245
• Equity at exit: $78,287

Cash invested: $27,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$513
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,074/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $920

Max offer price $97,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,475
• Closing costs: $2,937
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	23d	1	0.28mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	43d	1	0.37mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	0.73mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	0.85mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	43d	1	1.01mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	1.03mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	43d	1	1.04mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	1.06mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	43d	1	1.09mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	1.11mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	1.11mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	1.11mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	1.13mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	12d	1	1.13mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	1.14mi
1502 Summer Run Dr #108 Florissant, MO	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	23d	1	1.16mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	43d	1	1.16mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	1.17mi
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	43d	1	1.18mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	1.21mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	23d	1	1.22mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	1.24mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	43d	1	1.26mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	14d	1	1.27mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	17d	1	1.29mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	1.34mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	23d	1	1.39mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	43d	1	1.39mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	1.41mi
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	16d	1	1.41mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	1.42mi
1670 Arundel Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	23d	1	1.48mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	43d	1	1.49mi
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	43d	3	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,900 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,900 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,900 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,900 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,900 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,900 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,900 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,900 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,900 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $97,900 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,900 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,900 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,900 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,900 Active 170 DOM
15. 2025-12-12
    listed $97,900 Active 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Great Opportunity to own this single-family home built in 1964 featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms. ***SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. ***

16. 2010-02-05
    soldstatus
17. 2006-08-18
    soldstatus $94,000
18. 2001-10-15
    soldstatus
19. 1980-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,484
• − Property taxes: −$2,074
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − Depreciation: −$2,848
• Taxable income: $2,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$600
• After-tax cash flow: $3,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Dellwood

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #11618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dellwood, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+4.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Listed $97,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1980-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,074 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.