5221 NW Ashwick Ln · Port St. Lucie, FL 34987

$299,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,635 sqft · Townhouse · 68 Days on market

Built 2026 $200/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Offering a beautiful water view this Neptune home and features a stunning great room, ideal for gathering with friends and family. Past a powder room, the formal dining space adjoins your gourmet kitchen with Quartz Countertops and the large island offers versatile space you'll love. Enjoy the fresh air on the private lanai. Your convenient one-car garage includes a storage closet and opens to the laundry room. Upstairs, two bedrooms each feature a walk-in closet, and open toward a full bath. Your luxury owner's suite is ideally located on the main level, and includes its own dual vanity bath and a massive walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Quartz-topped island
• Stainless appliances
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ-TOPPED ISLAND
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• STEP-IN SHOWER
• DUAL-VANITY BATH
• MASSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listed as Active; list price available
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 200

Exterior

• Parking: 1 off-street parking space
• Utilities: Central air (cooling)
• Home design: Spec new construction, Plan: Neptune
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,635 (interior size available)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1146 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,510 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-56,741
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-61,181
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34987

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1146
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,877

Max offer price $282,577

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $-17	+0% $-120	+5% $-224	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-336	-5% $-228	+0% $-120	+5% $-13	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $31	-0.5pp $-44	base $-120	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10644 NW Wilgrove LN St Lucie West, FL	2.0	2.5	1720	$2,400	$1.40	15d	1	0.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,990 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,990 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 629-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $299,990 Active 58 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,616
• − Management: −$2,616
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,551
• After-tax cash flow: $107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $90,201
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 597.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.23%
• Current HPI: 269.222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B