997 S Redfish St · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$725,000

6 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 2019 5,998 sqft lot $341/sqft · at area comps Est $728k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 6-bedroom, 5-bath beach house is thoughtfully designed for short-term rentals. Sleeping 22, this meticulously maintained beach house features built-in bunk beds and ensuite baths for nearly every bedroom, providing comfort and privacy for large groups. Take note of the tall ceilings and doors, granite countertops, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The ground level is an entertainer’s paradise with a firepit, hot tub, convenient bathroom, and plenty of parking. Upstairs, the primary suite opens to a private deck with stunning views — perfect for morning coffee or sunset cocktails. Located on a beach-access street, just a short stroll or golf cart ride to the sand. Schedule your showing to see this property for yourself!

Key facts

• Ensuite baths
• Firepit
• Tall ceilings

Tags

• BUILT-IN BUNK BEDS
• ENSUITE BATHS
• TALL CEILINGS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FIREPIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $725k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $725k).
• Recommended offer: $638k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 770 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $203k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($638k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $638,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.45%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $728,185
• List price: $725,000
• Delta: -0.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $39,138
• Equity at exit: $108,100

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $236,836
• Equity at exit: $62,685

Cash invested: $203,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,802
• Tax from tax record: −$628 /mo · $7,538/yr
• Insurance: −$302
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,088
• Net cashflow: $2,453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,837

Max offer price $725,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,863	-5% $2,658	+0% $2,453	+5% $2,248	+10% $2,043
Rent	-10% $1,668	-5% $2,060	+0% $2,453	+5% $2,846	+10% $3,238
Rate	-1.0pp $2,818	-0.5pp $2,637	base $2,453	+0.5pp $2,265	+1.0pp $2,074

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,250
• Closing costs: $21,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
907 S Cove Dr Unit 1223255P Crystal Beach, TX	6.0	3.0	2497	$9,942	$3.98	22d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $725,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $725,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $725,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $725,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $725,000 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $725,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $725,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $725,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $725,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $725,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $725,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $725,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $725,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-01-23
    listed $725,000 Active 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    This 6-bedroom, 5-bath beach house is thoughtfully designed for short-term rentals. Sleeping 22, this meticulously maintained beach house features built-in bunk beds and ensuite baths for nearly every bedroom, providing comfort and privacy for large groups. Take note of the tall ceilings and doors, granite countertops, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The ground level is an entertainer’s paradise with a firepit, hot tub, convenient bathroom, and plenty of parking. Upstairs, the primary suite opens to a private deck with stunning views — perfect for morning coffee or sunset cocktails. Located on a beach-access street, just a short stroll or golf cart ride to the sand. Schedule your showing to see this property for yourself!

15. 2026-01-22
    historical
16. 2025-09-25
    listed $750,000 Active
17. 2023-06-14
    soldstatus
18. 2023-06-07
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2023-05-09
    historical
20. 2023-04-24
    price $740,000
21. 2023-04-24
    price $740,000
22. 2023-04-21
    price $795,000
23. 2023-04-20
    price $795,000
24. 2023-02-24
    listed $895,000 Active
25. 2018-06-28
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2018-05-17
    status Pending
27. 2017-07-27
    status Active
28. 2017-07-23
    historical
29. 2017-02-20
    listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,538 · $628/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,268 · $1,106/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,729/yr (+$477/mo · 76.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $119,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,611
• − Property taxes: −$7,538
• − Insurance: −$11,653
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,544
• − Management: −$9,544
• − Depreciation: −$21,091
• Taxable income: $19,322
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,637
• After-tax cash flow: $24,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 2,362

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1108.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $725,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $750,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-07 Sold (MLS) — Galveston MLS
• 2023-05-09 Delisted — Galveston MLS
• 2023-04-24 Price Changed $740,000 Galveston MLS
• 2023-04-24 Price Changed $740,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-21 Price Changed $795,000 Galveston MLS
• 2023-04-20 Price Changed $795,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-24 Listed $895,000 Galveston MLS
• 2018-06-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-07-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-02-20 Listed $60,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+57.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,538 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.