3701 Porter Cir · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$175,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 109 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $183k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Price Drop Spacious and well-maintained mobile home in a desirable waterfront, family-friendly park. Offering 1,536 sq ft of living space plus two enclosed bonus rooms, this home provides flexible options for a hobby room, workshop, or additional storage—with plenty of potential to customize to your needs. Functional floor plan with two large bedrooms on opposite ends for added privacy. Currently configured as a 3-bedroom, utilizing one of the enclosed sunrooms as an additional sleeping area. The oversized front bedroom features abundant natural light, mirrored closet doors, an attached bathroom, and a bonus area with potential to be partitioned to create a fourth bedroom if desired.

Key facts

• Attached bathroom
• Enclosed bonus rooms
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• ENCLOSED BONUS ROOMS
• OVERSIZED FRONT BEDROOM
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• JETTED WALK-IN TUB
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed upon approval; Community clubhouse; Community pool; Park name: THE WILLOWS

Exterior

• Parking: Awning for car
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Back yard; Side yard; Storage; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Gas range / cooktop
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Bonus/plus room; Den; Window coverings; Mirrored closet doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Laundry facility (street level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $176k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $176k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.0% vs local median 2.9% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,159 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.73%
• DSCR: 3.66
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,784
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3513 Alcott Cir #134	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,559 (+2%)	15mo	$195,000	$125	78
3702 Hawthorne	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (+7%)	5mo	$40,000	$24	77
336 Alcott Ct #170	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$129,000	$96	77
3705 Hawthorne Dr #12	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+7%)	12mo	$215,000	$130	72
3760 Porter Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	15mo	$159,900	$119	64
3764 Porter Cir #22	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (+2%)	9mo	$198,800	$127	62
3621 Hawthorne Dr #110	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	19mo	$130,000	$90	60
3757 Porter Cir #69	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	22mo	$80,000	$60	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $225,240
• Equity at exit: $158,554

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 12.41×
• Total profit: $562,467
• Equity at exit: $341,927

Cash invested: $49,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$923
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$220 /mo · $2,640/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$975
• Net cashflow: $2,026

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,080

Max offer price $175,999

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,000
• Closing costs: $5,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,999 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,999 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,999 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,999 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,999 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,999 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,999 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,999 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,999 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,999 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,999 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,999 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,999 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,999 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    price $175,999
16. 2026-04-06
    price $179,999
17. 2026-03-02
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,859
• − Property taxes: −$2,640
• − Insurance: −$5,998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,459
• − Management: −$4,459
• − Depreciation: −$5,120
• Taxable income: $23,199
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,568
• After-tax cash flow: $18,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $175,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $179,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $185,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $297 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.