7085 W Emery Rd · Roscommon, MI 48629

$37,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · Manufactured public records · 561 Days on market

Built 1970 1.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single wide trailer on 1 ac of land, located in near Houghton Lake on a paved road, about 30 minutes from Gladwin. the trailer itself has potential. The Roof has been added recently Valued at 10,000. the key selling points would be the land, the presence of a private well and septic system, and its paved road access in a nice country location. This could be appealing to buyers looking for a peaceful, rural setting with essential utilities already in place.

Key facts

• Paved road access
• Rural setting
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL AND SEPTIC
• PAVED ROAD ACCESS
• RURAL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property on approximately 1 acre

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system
• Home design: Residential single-wide manufactured home; One-story
• Construction: Built in 1970; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Metal siding; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level (approx. 7 x 14) with wood flooring
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level (approx. 12 x 12) with wood flooring
• Flooring: Wood flooring throughout main living areas and bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level (approx. 7 x 7)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; LP/Propane gas fuel
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Living room about 14 x 14

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $37k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($792 rent vs $37k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 2.3% in Roscommon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#250 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Houghton Lake Community Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #410 of 540 in MI (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Roscommon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $256 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roscommon County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 561 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 561 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.05%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $14,039
• Equity at exit: $5,517

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $38,152
• Equity at exit: $3,199

Cash invested: $10,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48629

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$194
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $430/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $395

Max offer price $37,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,250
• Closing costs: $1,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-30
   price $37,000
2. 2025-12-20
   status Back on Market
3. 2025-11-01
   historical
4. 2025-04-07
   status Active
5. 2025-04-01
   historical
6. 2024-12-12
   price $45,000
7. 2024-09-16
   listed $37,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $430 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $500 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,073
• − Property taxes: −$430
• − Insurance: −$982
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$760
• − Management: −$760
• − Depreciation: −$1,076
• Taxable income: $3,421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$821
• After-tax cash flow: $2,945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houghton Lake Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618600
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,744
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8158
• State rank: #410 of 540 in MI

Livability — Roscommon

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #6191

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,922

Population outlook (Roscommon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,249 people
• By 2030: 21,206 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 19,070 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 17,564 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,420 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 13,168 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Jamaica

Political lean MEDSL · Roscommon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.9) · D 32.9% · R 65.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.9 2020: R+30.0 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.09%
• Current HPI: 303.1638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $37,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-20 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-07 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-12 Price Changed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listed $37,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $430 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.