2200 Jewell Lane Ln #14 · Redding, CA 96001

$34,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 450 sqft · Manufactured · 26 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing this charming 1 bed, 1 bath 2018 mobile home with a timeless and functional design. Located in Rolling Ranch Mobile Estates. This beautiful family park is dog-friendly and makes it an ideal place to call home.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2018
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in a park setting (Rolling Ranch)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home)
• Construction: Composition roof; Metal skirting; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Greenbelt; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven
• Bedrooms: 1 room total
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet flooring
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Range and oven included; No fireplace; Has a view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,474 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.86%
• DSCR: 4.64
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $21,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2237 Jewell Ln Ln #10	0.19mi	1/1.0	400 (-11%)	16mo	$19,000	$48	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $15,536
• Equity at exit: $5,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $59,382
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96001

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $846

Max offer price $34,999

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $254	+0% $242	+5% $230	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $151	-5% $196	+0% $242	+5% $287	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $251	base $242	+0.5pp $233	+1.0pp $224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-30
   listed $34,999 Active
2. 2026-02-19
   price $22,000
3. 2026-02-07
   listed $27,000 Active
4. 2024-05-28
   soldstatus $39,900 Closed 221-char remark

   Show marketing remark (221 chars)

   Introducing this charming 1 bed, 1 bath 2018 mobile home with a timeless and functional design. Located in Rolling Ranch Mobile Estates. This beautiful family park is dog-friendly and makes it an ideal place to call home.

5. 2024-05-17
   status Pending 221-char remark

   Show marketing remark (221 chars)

   Introducing this charming 1 bed, 1 bath 2018 mobile home with a timeless and functional design. Located in Rolling Ranch Mobile Estates. This beautiful family park is dog-friendly and makes it an ideal place to call home.

6. 2024-04-23
   price $39,900 221-char remark

   Show marketing remark (221 chars)

   Introducing this charming 1 bed, 1 bath 2018 mobile home with a timeless and functional design. Located in Rolling Ranch Mobile Estates. This beautiful family park is dog-friendly and makes it an ideal place to call home.

7. 2024-04-02
   listed $49,900 Active 221-char remark

   Show marketing remark (221 chars)

   Introducing this charming 1 bed, 1 bath 2018 mobile home with a timeless and functional design. Located in Rolling Ranch Mobile Estates. This beautiful family park is dog-friendly and makes it an ideal place to call home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,960
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$5,293
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,106
• − Management: −$1,106
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $2,819
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$677
• After-tax cash flow: $2,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2018 mobile home in Rolling Ranch Mobile Estates is in good condition with minor repairs and maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with updates that can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Need cleaning
• Minor Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Minor Carpeted flooring — Worn appearance
• Minor Paint — Faded appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpeted flooring — New flooring improves comfort and appearance
• Both Clean and maintain kitchen cabinets — Clean cabinets improve functionality and appearance
• Both Clean and maintain bathroom fixtures — Clean fixtures improve functionality and appearance
• Both Trim and maintain exterior siding — Trim siding improves curb appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Carpeted flooring · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint · Faded appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$2,500–15,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpeted flooring — New flooring improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Clean and maintain kitchen cabinets — Clean cabinets improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Clean and maintain bathroom fixtures — Clean fixtures improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Trim and maintain exterior siding — Trim siding improves curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,817
• Household income: $72,484
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1458.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.25%
• Current HPI: 291.6191
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.55%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-29.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $34,999 SAOR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $22,000 SAOR
• 2026-02-07 Listed $27,000 SAOR
• 2024-05-28 Sold (MLS) $39,900 SAOR
• 2024-05-17 Pending — SAOR
• 2024-04-23 Price Changed $39,900 SAOR
• 2024-04-02 Listed $49,900 SAOR