3938 Bailey Ave · Eggertsville, NY 14226

$269,999

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1935 5,600 sqft lot $179/sqft · 36% below area Est $421k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 3938 Bailey Ave! This well-maintained multifamily property is conveniently located just minutes from UB South Campus and situated along a direct bus route to UB North. The duplex features a spacious lower unit with 4 bedrooms and an upper unit offering 3 bedrooms, providing excellent rental potential. Situated on a commercial lot with parking for 5+ vehicles, the property also includes central air for added comfort. Ideal for investors seeking a strong student rental opportunity, or for an owner-occupant looking to live in one unit while generating income from the other

Key facts

• Direct bus route
• Multifamily property
• Commercial lot

Tags

• MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY
• DIRECT BUS ROUTE
• COMMERCIAL LOT
• PARKING FOR 5 VEHICLES
• CENTRAL AIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 4-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive. Per door: $922/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $270k).
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 4.5% in Eggertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Amherst Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #209 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,844/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 856% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $269,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.28%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $420,986
• List price: $269,999
• Delta: -35.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
344 Niagara Falls Blvd	0.51mi	6/2.0	1,536 (+2%)	10mo	$255,000	$166	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $99,460
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $354,967
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14226

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,448/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,017
• Net cashflow: $1,844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,509

Max offer price $269,999

Occupancy floor 57%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	4	1.5	$4,844
Total (2 units)			$4,844

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4098 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.5	2108	$2,200	$1.04	44d	1	0.32mi
64 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	1.5	1512	$2,700	$1.79	44d	1	0.80mi
64 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	1.5	1512	$2,500	$1.65	2d	1	0.80mi
65 Northrup Pl Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	14d	1	0.99mi
85 Highgate Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2193	$3,750	$1.71	14d	1	1.06mi
175 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	14d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   Welcome to 3938 Bailey Ave! This well-maintained multifamily property is conveniently located just minutes from UB South Campus and situated along a direct bus route to UB North. The duplex features a spacious lower unit with 4 bedrooms and an upper unit offering 3 bedrooms, providing excellent rental potential. Situated on a commercial lot with parking for 5+ vehicles, the property also includes central air for added comfort. Ideal for investors seeking a strong student rental opportunity, or for an owner-occupant looking to live in one unit while generating income from the other

2. 2026-04-22
   listed $269,999 Active 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   Welcome to 3938 Bailey Ave! This well-maintained multifamily property is conveniently located just minutes from UB South Campus and situated along a direct bus route to UB North. The duplex features a spacious lower unit with 4 bedrooms and an upper unit offering 3 bedrooms, providing excellent rental potential. Situated on a commercial lot with parking for 5+ vehicles, the property also includes central air for added comfort. Ideal for investors seeking a strong student rental opportunity, or for an owner-occupant looking to live in one unit while generating income from the other

3. 2024-04-03
   soldstatus $310,000
4. 2024-04-02
   soldstatus $310,000 Closed 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   Location! High-demand area! front face of the house updated with stone and Great for investment or owner occupied. 3/3 duplex units' rental income produce property is close to UBO South Campus & metro transportation route. Lower unit have been updated top to bottom some updates including electric & gas line update, windows are new. Lower unit has eat-in kitchen and formal dining room, living room with flooring and freshly painted. Both units are fully occupied with tenants (student living). Both units have Central Air Condition and full basement full fenced backyard.

5. 2024-02-15
   status Pending 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   Location! High-demand area! front face of the house updated with stone and Great for investment or owner occupied. 3/3 duplex units' rental income produce property is close to UBO South Campus & metro transportation route. Lower unit have been updated top to bottom some updates including electric & gas line update, windows are new. Lower unit has eat-in kitchen and formal dining room, living room with flooring and freshly painted. Both units are fully occupied with tenants (student living). Both units have Central Air Condition and full basement full fenced backyard.

6. 2024-02-12
   listed $260,000 Active 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   Location! High-demand area! front face of the house updated with stone and Great for investment or owner occupied. 3/3 duplex units' rental income produce property is close to UBO South Campus & metro transportation route. Lower unit have been updated top to bottom some updates including electric & gas line update, windows are new. Lower unit has eat-in kitchen and formal dining room, living room with flooring and freshly painted. Both units are fully occupied with tenants (student living). Both units have Central Air Condition and full basement full fenced backyard.

7. 2022-05-20
   historical
8. 2022-04-20
   price $255,000
9. 2022-03-31
   listed $259,800 Active
10. 2021-07-12
    soldstatus $141,505
11. 2018-06-07
    soldstatus $143,000 Closed Sale or Rented
12. 2018-06-07
    soldstatus $143,000
13. 2018-05-01
    status Pending Sale
14. 2018-03-23
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
15. 2018-02-20
    listed $149,900 Active
16. 2017-08-22
    historical
17. 2017-06-05
    price $164,900
18. 2017-03-21
    listed $174,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,448 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,448 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$5,448
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,650
• − Management: −$4,650
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable income: $19,051
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,572
• After-tax cash flow: $17,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amherst Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602920
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,551
• Composite: 53.21/100
• National rank: #1502
• State rank: #209 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eggertsville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #534

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eggertsville, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 29,482
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,159
• Household income: $84,325
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.71%
• Current HPI: 331.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+54.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $269,999 WNYREIS
• 2024-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-02 Sold (MLS) $310,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-02-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-02-12 Listed $260,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-05-20 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2022-04-20 Price Changed $255,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-03-31 Listed $259,800 WNYREIS
• 2021-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $141,505 Public Records
• 2018-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-07 Sold (MLS) $143,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-05-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-03-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-02-20 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-08-22 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-06-05 Price Changed $164,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-03-21 Listed $174,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,448 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.