8652 E Colby Rd · Crystal, MI 48818

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2003 3.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location just one mile from Crystal Lake. Enjoy the private 3 acre setting off the deck of the home with many trees and nature view. The home features an open floor plan, detached 2 car garage and additional storage.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Nature view
• Additional storage

Tags

• PRIVATE 3 ACRE SETTING
• NATURE VIEW
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carson City-Crystal Area Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #449 of 540 in MI (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 273 units permitted in Montcalm County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montcalm County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $105,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.44%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,413
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $27,173
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48818

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $341	+0% $305	+5% $268	+10% $232
Rent	-10% $202	-5% $253	+0% $305	+5% $356	+10% $408
Rate	-1.0pp $358	-0.5pp $331	base $305	+0.5pp $278	+1.0pp $250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-09
   status Pending 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   Great location just one mile from Crystal Lake. Enjoy the private 3 acre setting off the deck of the home with many trees and nature view. The home features an open floor plan, detached 2 car garage and additional storage.

2. 2026-01-09
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   Great location just one mile from Crystal Lake. Enjoy the private 3 acre setting off the deck of the home with many trees and nature view. The home features an open floor plan, detached 2 car garage and additional storage.

3. 2026-01-03
   listed $105,000 Active 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   Great location just one mile from Crystal Lake. Enjoy the private 3 acre setting off the deck of the home with many trees and nature view. The home features an open floor plan, detached 2 car garage and additional storage.

4. 2026-01-02
   listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,252
• − Management: −$1,252
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,111
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$507
• After-tax cash flow: $3,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carson City-Crystal Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2608130
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,566
• Composite: 18.83/100
• National rank: #8865
• State rank: #449 of 540 in MI

Livability — Crystal

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,541

Population outlook (Montcalm County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,011 people
• By 2030: 59,467 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 55,427 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 50,517 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 38,731 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 26,770 · -56.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montcalm

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.0) · D 29.8% · R 68.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.3pp · 2024: -39.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.0 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+0.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.34%
• Current HPI: 200.7585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-01-09 Pending — Greater Lansing AoR
• 2026-01-03 Listed $105,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-02 Listed $105,000 Greater Lansing AoR