1517 School St · Gonzales, TX 78629

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1998 10,288 sqft lot $124/sqft · 12% below area Est $147k · 12% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

In-town 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on approximately 0.23 acre. This property offers a practical option for buyers seeking affordability and manageable space. The kitchen features a galley-style layout with compact bedrooms and the home includes a separate laundry area. Exterior features include an accessibility ramp and a detached storage building. The yard is open with no fencing. Property is convenient to schools, shopping, and major roadways. Suitable for a primary residence or investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Open yard
• Galley-style layout
• Accessibility ramp

Tags

• GALLEY-STYLE LAYOUT
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY AREA
• ACCESSIBILITY RAMP
• DETACHED STORAGE BUILDING
• OPEN YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($453/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.2% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#720 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Gonzales ISD (town): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #540 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,202
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -11.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
623 Hopkins St	0.23mi	2/2.0	934 (-11%)	11mo	$113,000	$121	62
610 N Fair St	0.28mi	2/1.0	924 (-12%)	4mo	$215,000	$233	60
319 Smith St	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,098 (+5%)	1mo	$150,000	$137	59
1226 Saint Matthew St	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,086 (+4%)	12mo	$134,000	$123	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-18,611
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-12,906
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78629

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,566/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,202

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
708 Saint Matthew St Gonzales, TX	2.0	1.0	1055	$1,250	$1.18	44d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on marketlisting id $130,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $130,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-03-18
    price $145,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    In-town 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on approximately 0.23 acre. This property offers a practical option for buyers seeking affordability and manageable space. The kitchen features a galley-style layout with compact bedrooms and the home includes a separate laundry area. Exterior features include an accessibility ramp and a detached storage building. The yard is open with no fencing. Property is convenient to schools, shopping, and major roadways. Suitable for a primary residence or investment opportunity.

15. 2026-01-23
    listed $159,500 Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    In-town 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on approximately 0.23 acre. This property offers a practical option for buyers seeking affordability and manageable space. The kitchen features a galley-style layout with compact bedrooms and the home includes a separate laundry area. Exterior features include an accessibility ramp and a detached storage building. The yard is open with no fencing. Property is convenient to schools, shopping, and major roadways. Suitable for a primary residence or investment opportunity.

16. 2025-04-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,566 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,566 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,566
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$403
• After-tax cash flow: $856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gonzales ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821060
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,230
• Composite: 28.97/100
• National rank: #6626
• State rank: #540 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gonzales

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #720
• US rank: #13452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzales, TX
• City population: 12,380
• Population (ZIP): 12,380

Population outlook (Gonzales County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,246 people
• By 2030: 23,060 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 24,661 · +10.9%
• By 2050: 26,046 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 29,289 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 30,112 · +35.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 20% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Gonzales

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.8) · D 22.3% · R 77.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.4pp · 2024: -54.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.8 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.37%
• Current HPI: 178.7752
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $145,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $159,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,566 · +18.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.