Pierce Plan · Stagecoach, TX 77355

$252,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,642 sqft · SingleFamily · 951 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 950 days

🏗️ New construction. The $252,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,947.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Decker Prairie El (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 40% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tomball ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 556 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 951 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,042 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 951 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.53%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,947
• List price: $252,990
• Delta: -7.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26406 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,642 (0%)	2mo	$268,420	$163	80
26294 Arrowleaf Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	1,642 (0%)	2mo	$249,910	$152	79
26382 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+8%)	1mo	$239,090	$135	68
26306 Arrowleaf Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+8%)	2mo	$274,755	$155	62
26410 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-8%)	2mo	$256,610	$170	60
26386 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-8%)	5mo	$261,870	$173	60
26295 Arrowleaf Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+13%)	1mo	$269,040	$145	59
26307 Arrowleaf Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+13%)	0mo	$259,325	$140	59
26275 Arrowleaf Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+13%)	4mo	$288,270	$156	58
26286 Arrowleaf Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+13%)	2mo	$274,050	$148	58
26299 Arrowleaf Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-8%)	5mo	$267,310	$177	56
26290 Arrowleaf Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-8%)	6mo	$256,610	$170	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-58,751
• Equity at exit: $40,846

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-69,561
• Equity at exit: $23,686

Cash invested: $76,705 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,109/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,396

Max offer price $241,251

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-131	+0% $-226	+5% $-321	+10% $-415
Rent	-10% $-393	-5% $-309	+0% $-226	+5% $-143	+10% $-59
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-156	base $-226	+0.5pp $-297	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,487
• Closing costs: $8,218
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26193 Brahman Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,925	$1.60	26d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,990 Active 951 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $252,990 Active 950 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 948 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 947 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 944 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 943 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 942 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,990 Active 939 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,990 Active 938 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 937 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 936 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 935 DOM
13. 2026-04-03
    price $249,990 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

14. 2025-01-19
    price $247,990 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

15. 2024-09-18
    price $271,990 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

16. 2024-05-30
    price $270,990 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

17. 2023-11-08
    listed $269,990 Active 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    The smartly planned Pierce design combines comfort with versatility for today's busy families. Its central great room adjoining an expansive gourmet kitchen encourages connecting with friends and family. The upstairs private owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms give parents and children separate space. Choose a covered first-floor patio for outdoor entertaining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,345
• − Property taxes: −$4,109
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − Depreciation: −$7,969
• Taxable loss: −$7,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,805
• After-tax cash flow: $-907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can make the interior more inviting and attractive.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can make the interior more inviting and attractive. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stagecoach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #17937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-19 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $270,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $269,990 Zillow