3534 Mildren Bnd · Crandall, TX 75114

$122,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2022 4,966 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New! Super cute open floor plan. Three bedrooms, two full baths with eat in kitchen. Home includes, Quartz counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Located in a desirable neighborhood with club house, community pool and walking trails, easy access to Dallas and surrounding areas. Schedule a tour today! Stage 6 of 13

Key facts

• 4,966 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 5.3% in Crandall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Noble Reed (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 595 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 41% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 787 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,340 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.24%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,510
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3713 Pronghorn Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-7%)	1mo	$219,000	$158	83
3664 Mildren Bnd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-3%)	0mo	$239,999	$165	79
2213 Nightgrove Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+0%)	1mo	$223,000	$149	77
3676 Mildren Bnd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-3%)	2mo	$223,999	$154	76
3331 Watterson Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-5%)	1mo	$230,000	$162	72
2071 Wildcat Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-1%)	1mo	$244,900	$165	70
3634 Mildren Bnd	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (+11%)	1mo	$255,000	$154	65
6319 Streamside Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,586 (+6%)	2mo	$288,240	$182	55
6323 Streamside Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-7%)	1mo	$277,740	$199	55
6022 Midsummer Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-11%)	1mo	$259,740	$195	52
6311 Streamside Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-11%)	1mo	$263,740	$197	49
2810 Bakers Bnd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-11%)	0mo	$275,740	$207	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $26,047
• Equity at exit: $18,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $81,849
• Equity at exit: $10,548

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 787
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$152 /mo · $1,830/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,131

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3324 Price Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,995	$1.54	16d	1	0.07mi
2127 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	43d	1	0.13mi
2117 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,875	$1.27	43d	1	0.14mi
4152 Silverstein St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,925	$1.52	24d	1	0.16mi
4171 Silverstein St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,900	$1.45	12d	1	0.16mi
2043 Serval Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,100	$1.36	43d	1	0.36mi
2505 Milne Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	18d	1	0.52mi
2960 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	43d	1	0.55mi
2973 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,665	$1.16	43d	1	0.56mi
2991 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,895	$1.50	43d	1	0.57mi
2961 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,855	$1.47	1d	1	0.57mi
3007 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	43d	1	0.60mi
4624 Verdin St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,950	$1.40	1d	1	0.61mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	43d	1	0.62mi
3104 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,675	$1.32	24d	1	0.62mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,729	$1.20	2d	1	0.65mi
3101 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,745	$1.38	24d	1	0.65mi
3352 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,850	$1.46	15d	1	0.68mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	43d	1	0.68mi
3072 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,500	$1.47	24d	1	0.72mi
2603 Khaju Grv Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	2d	1	0.82mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	43d	1	0.82mi
2511 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,799	$1.45	24d	1	0.85mi
2311 Alcantara Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,765	$1.45	5d	1	0.86mi
2294 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,815	$1.43	24d	1	0.86mi
2302 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	2d	1	0.87mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	43d	1	0.87mi
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	43d	1	1.01mi
2204 Boiling Springs Rd Crandall, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1497	$2,131	$1.42	1d	5	1.01mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	43d	1	1.06mi
1209 Kings Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,975	$1.46	1d	1	1.06mi
1609 Duke Dr Crandall, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1614	$2,242	$1.39	1d	1	1.08mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	24d	1	1.14mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	43d	1	1.27mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	2d	1	1.28mi
4484 Bonney Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1206	$2,000	$1.66	1d	1	1.33mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.37mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	1.39mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.40mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-08
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-02-17
   listed $122,000 Active
4. 2022-12-29
   soldstatus Closed 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   New! Super cute open floor plan. Three bedrooms, two full baths with eat in kitchen. Home includes, Quartz counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Located in a desirable neighborhood with club house, community pool and walking trails, easy access to Dallas and surrounding areas. Schedule a tour today! Stage 6 of 13

5. 2022-12-08
   status Pending 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   New! Super cute open floor plan. Three bedrooms, two full baths with eat in kitchen. Home includes, Quartz counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Located in a desirable neighborhood with club house, community pool and walking trails, easy access to Dallas and surrounding areas. Schedule a tour today! Stage 6 of 13

6. 2022-11-10
   price $270,990 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   New! Super cute open floor plan. Three bedrooms, two full baths with eat in kitchen. Home includes, Quartz counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Located in a desirable neighborhood with club house, community pool and walking trails, easy access to Dallas and surrounding areas. Schedule a tour today! Stage 6 of 13

7. 2022-11-06
   listed $266,490 Active 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   New! Super cute open floor plan. Three bedrooms, two full baths with eat in kitchen. Home includes, Quartz counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Located in a desirable neighborhood with club house, community pool and walking trails, easy access to Dallas and surrounding areas. Schedule a tour today! Stage 6 of 13

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$1,830
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $7,139
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,713
• After-tax cash flow: $6,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crandall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #10022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 9,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-54.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $122,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-12-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-11-10 Price Changed $270,990 NTREIS
• 2022-11-06 Listed $266,490 NTREIS

Property tax history

+82.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,566 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.