17123 Saxophone Ln · Deerwood, TX 77306

$149,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $61/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Baja Floor Plan - This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner’s suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Villages of Greystone homeowners association; Association amenities include park, pool, and trails; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Built in 2026; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Association pool; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 14 x 10); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 9); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Separate shower; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $149,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $181,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 34% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,740 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.24%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,990
• List price: $149,990
• Delta: -17.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17107 Saxophone Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	1mo	$184,990	$156	85
17131 Saxophone Ln	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	2mo	$183,990	$155	85
17115 Saxophone Ln	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	2mo	$183,990	$155	85
17135 Saxophone Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+14%)	1mo	$188,990	$139	70
139 Pegasus Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-6%)	11mo	$129,000	$115	60
3602 Duplet Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+14%)	1mo	$188,990	$139	59
17143 Saxophone Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+14%)	2mo	$189,990	$140	59
16431 Trenda Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-6%)	14mo	$55,000	$49	56
3603 Duplet Ave	0.29mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,013 (-15%)	1mo	$179,991	$178	56
17103 Saxophone Ln	0.29mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,013 (-15%)	2mo	$178,990	$177	55
16406 Trenda Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	14mo	$135,000	$100	43
16479 Taurus Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	15mo	$159,900	$119	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-23,379
• Equity at exit: $27,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,310
• Equity at exit: $15,735

Cash invested: $50,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$227 /mo · $2,730/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,669

Max offer price $181,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $158	+0% $95	+5% $32	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-46	-5% $24	+0% $95	+5% $166	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $141	base $95	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $0

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,498
• Closing costs: $5,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	45d	1	0.54mi
15581 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   historical
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $159,990 Active 546-char remark
3. 2026-05-08
   price $159,990
4. 2026-05-08
   listed $159,990 Active
5. 2026-05-08
   listed $184,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,194
• − Property taxes: −$2,730
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$5,294
• Taxable loss: −$1,823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$438
• After-tax cash flow: $1,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 18 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a fresh, inviting interior. It's move-in ready with minor updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bedrooms — Modernizes the space and improves comfort
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bedrooms — Modernizes the space and improves comfort ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $149,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $152,040 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $159,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $159,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $184,990 HARMLS