1700 Palo Duro Way · Celina, TX 75009

$400,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,427 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 4,661 sqft lot $165/sqft · 20% below area Est $504k · 21% under $135/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built by Highland Homes. Luxurious two-story home exudes charm with white brick facade and inviting front porch. Inside, be captivated by soaring ceilings in the entry and living area. The spacious kitchen boasts ample storage, Stainless Steel appliances, upper cabinets, and stunning quartz countertops. Retreat to the primary suite with its luxurious En-Suite bath featuring a drop-in tub and separate shower. Elegant tile upgrades throughout complete this picture-perfect home!

Key facts

• Inviting front porch
• Spacious kitchen
• Soaring ceilings

Tags

• WHITE BRICK FACADE
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• SOARING CEILINGS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• AMPLE STORAGE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($705/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $376k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2895 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $165k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $376,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $504,272
• List price: $400,000
• Delta: -20.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1604 Victoria Pl	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-4%)	0mo	$474,900	$203	88
2736 Acadia Mews	0.07mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-4%)	2mo	$474,900	$203	87
1717 Palo Duro Way	0.04mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-4%)	6mo	$474,900	$203	86
2628 Muirwood Way	0.10mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-4%)	3mo	$475,900	$204	85
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,321 (-4%)	3mo	$464,900	$200	82
2118 Newhall Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,464 (+2%)	1mo	$495,000	$201	65
2409 Plumeria Ln	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,593 (+7%)	7mo	$549,990	$212	64
2601 Hardwood Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,429 (+0%)	2mo	$490,000	$202	64
2209 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,447 (+1%)	4mo	$572,350	$234	63
2616 Hardwood Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,464 (+2%)	4mo	$565,475	$229	54
2316 Plumeria Ln	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,703 (+11%)	7mo	$579,990	$215	54
2434 Plumeria Ln	0.38mi	4/4.0	2,784 (+15%)	6mo	$589,990	$212	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-73,234
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-105,863
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2895
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$931 /mo · $11,173/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$901
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,216

Max offer price $400,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	1d	1	0.00mi
2437 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	3257	$3,611	$1.11	43d	1	0.33mi
1720 Yaupon Ct Celina, TX	4.0	5.0	3271	$3,450	$1.05	24d	1	1.19mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$3,200	$1.14	24d	1	1.29mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	43d	1	1.39mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	18d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $400,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $400,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $400,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $400,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $400,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $400,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $400,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $400,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $400,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $400,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $430,000 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Built by Highland Homes. Luxurious two-story home exudes charm with white brick facade and inviting front porch. Inside, be captivated by soaring ceilings in the entry and living area. The spacious kitchen boasts ample storage, Stainless Steel appliances, upper cabinets, and stunning quartz countertops. Retreat to the primary suite with its luxurious En-Suite bath featuring a drop-in tub and separate shower. Elegant tile upgrades throughout complete this picture-perfect home!

15. 2026-04-08
    price $475,000 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Built by Highland Homes. Luxurious two-story home exudes charm with white brick facade and inviting front porch. Inside, be captivated by soaring ceilings in the entry and living area. The spacious kitchen boasts ample storage, Stainless Steel appliances, upper cabinets, and stunning quartz countertops. Retreat to the primary suite with its luxurious En-Suite bath featuring a drop-in tub and separate shower. Elegant tile upgrades throughout complete this picture-perfect home!

16. 2026-04-08
    listed $565,000 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Built by Highland Homes. Luxurious two-story home exudes charm with white brick facade and inviting front porch. Inside, be captivated by soaring ceilings in the entry and living area. The spacious kitchen boasts ample storage, Stainless Steel appliances, upper cabinets, and stunning quartz countertops. Retreat to the primary suite with its luxurious En-Suite bath featuring a drop-in tub and separate shower. Elegant tile upgrades throughout complete this picture-perfect home!

17. 2026-03-31
    historical
18. 2026-03-23
    price $475,000
19. 2026-03-10
    price $500,000
20. 2025-11-18
    price $550,000
21. 2025-10-31
    listed $565,000 Active
22. 2024-09-20
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2024-05-11
    status Pending
24. 2024-04-05
    price $578,590
25. 2024-03-22
    price $573,590
26. 2024-03-15
    price $572,165
27. 2024-01-31
    price $567,165
28. 2024-01-31
    soldstatus
29. 2024-01-27
    listed $567,510 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,173 · $931/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,173 · $931/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$11,173
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,119
• − Management: −$4,119
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$5,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,342
• After-tax cash flow: $2,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs needed. The home's curb appeal and interior can be enhanced with a fresh coat of paint and a modern flooring option.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Paint interior — Freshens up the home's appearance
• Both Replace flooring — Hardwood floors are in good condition but could be replaced for a more modern look

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Paint interior — Freshens up the home's appearance ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Hardwood floors are in good condition but could be replaced for a more modern look ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $430,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $475,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $565,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $475,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $500,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $550,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $565,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-05-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed $578,590 NTREIS
• 2024-03-22 Price Changed $573,590 NTREIS
• 2024-03-15 Price Changed $572,165 NTREIS
• 2024-01-31 Price Changed $567,165 NTREIS
• 2024-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-27 Listed $567,510 NTREIS

Property tax history

+163.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,173 · +707.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.