1700 Palo Duro Way · Celina, TX 75009

$400,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,427 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 4,661 sqft lot Garage $165/sqft · 18% below area Est $491k · 19% under $135/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built by Highland Homes. Luxurious two-story home exudes charm with white brick facade and inviting front porch. Inside, be captivated by soaring ceilings in the entry and living area. The spacious kitchen boasts ample storage, Stainless Steel appliances, upper cabinets, and stunning quartz countertops. Retreat to the primary suite with its luxurious En-Suite bath featuring a drop-in tub and separate shower. Elegant tile upgrades throughout complete this picture-perfect home!

Key facts

• Inviting front porch
• Spacious kitchen
• Soaring ceilings

Tags

• WHITE BRICK FACADE
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• SOARING CEILINGS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• AMPLE STORAGE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: O'Dell El (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 826 students, 15% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 4240 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 95d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $313,856 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.22%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $490,848
• List price: $400,000
• Delta: -18.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2600 Manzanar Mews	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,458 (+1%)	1mo	$530,000	$216	87
2609 Muirwood Way	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,344 (-3%)	3mo	$409,990	$175	86
1604 Victoria Pl	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-4%)	5mo	$474,900	$203	84
1629 Asbury Ln	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,579 (+6%)	4mo	$563,985	$219	84
2736 Acadia Mews	0.07mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-4%)	6mo	$474,900	$203	83
2628 Muirwood Way	0.10mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-4%)	7mo	$475,900	$204	81
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,321 (-4%)	8mo	$464,900	$200	78
2118 Newhall Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,464 (+2%)	5mo	$495,000	$201	61
2310 Moonstruck Pl	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,299 (-5%)	3mo	$475,000	$207	60
2601 Hardwood Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,429 (+0%)	7mo	$490,000	$202	60
2619 Cedar Ridge Rd	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,671 (+10%)	4mo	$575,000	$215	51
2616 Hardwood Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,464 (+2%)	8mo	$565,475	$229	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-105,560
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-169,278
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 123 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 67.1 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $530,990 ($217/sqft)
• Median days on market: 320 d
• This list price: 1% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 4240
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,410 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$782 /mo · $9,383/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,027

Max offer price $313,856

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-261	-5% $-374	+0% $-488	+5% $-601	+10% $-714
Rent	-10% $-757	-5% $-622	+0% $-488	+5% $-353	+10% $-218
Rate	-1.0pp $-286	-0.5pp $-386	base $-488	+0.5pp $-591	+1.0pp $-697

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	113d	1	0.00mi
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1964	$2,500	$1.27	92d	1	0.10mi
2616 Griffith Mews Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2846	$3,200	$1.12	1d	1	0.12mi
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2024	$3,050	$1.51	95d	1	0.13mi
2524 Lafayette Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2807	$3,100	$1.10	2d	1	0.25mi
2437 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	3257	$3,611	$1.11	184d	1	0.33mi
2429 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2973	$3,200	$1.08	10d	1	0.35mi
1624 Goldenrod Dr Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	2735	$3,300	$1.21	10d	1	1.13mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1930	$2,395	$1.24	65d	1	1.19mi
1720 Yaupon Ct Celina, TX	4.0	5.0	3271	$3,450	$1.05	165d	1	1.19mi
1129 Beebalm Mews Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$2,595	$1.05	1d	1	1.22mi
1129 Beebalm Mews Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$2,595	$1.05	10d	1	1.22mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	126d	1	1.29mi
2600 Precocious Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3316	$4,700	$1.42	99d	1	1.31mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	184d	1	1.39mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	159d	1	1.40mi
2632 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2359	$3,500	$1.48	0d	1	1.47mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2331	$3,300	$1.42	128d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession typically 30-60 days
• Financial info: Treat As Clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory associationMonthly association fee of $135HOA covers grounds maintenance and management; managed by Insight Association Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo storiesPart of The Parks at Wilson Creek planned developmentSmart home features
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2024
• Exterior features: Smaller residential lot in a planned communityCommunity grounds maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveDishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary suite on second level; other bedrooms on first and second levels)
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandLoftPantryWalk-in closetsTwo living areasOne dining areaTen total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedTankless water heaterWater softenerUtility room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-23
   days on market $400,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-10-22
   days on market $400,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-10-21
   days on market $400,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-10-20
   days on market $400,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-10-19
   days on market $400,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-10-18
   days on market $400,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-10-17
   days on market $400,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-10-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-10-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-10-14
    days on market $400,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-10-13
    days on market $400,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-10-12
    days on market $400,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-10-11
    days on market $400,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-10-10
    days on market $400,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-10-09
    days on market $400,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-10-08
    days on market $400,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-10-07
    days on market $400,000 Active 35 DOM
18. 2026-10-06
    days on market $400,000 Active 34 DOM
19. 2026-10-05
    days on market $400,000 Active 33 DOM
20. 2026-10-04
    days on market $400,000 Active 32 DOM
21. 2026-10-04
    days on market $400,000 Active 31 DOM
22. 2026-10-02
    days on market $400,000 Active 30 DOM
23. 2026-10-01
    days on market $400,000 Active 29 DOM
24. 2026-09-30
    days on market $400,000 Active 28 DOM
25. 2026-09-29
    days on market $400,000 Active 27 DOM
26. 2026-09-28
    days on market $400,000 Active 26 DOM
27. 2026-09-27
    days on market $400,000 Active 25 DOM
28. 2026-09-26
    days on market $400,000 Active 24 DOM
29. 2026-09-25
    days on market $400,000 Active 23 DOM
30. 2026-09-24
    days on market $400,000 Active 22 DOM
31. 2026-09-23
    days on market $400,000 Active 21 DOM
32. 2026-09-22
    days on market $400,000 Active 20 DOM
33. 2026-09-21
    days on market $400,000 Active 19 DOM
34. 2026-09-20
    days on market $400,000 Active 18 DOM
35. 2026-09-19
    days on market $400,000 Active 17 DOM
36. 2026-09-18
    days on market $400,000 Active 16 DOM
37. 2026-09-17
    days on market $400,000 Active 15 DOM
38. 2026-09-16
    days on market $400,000 Active 14 DOM
39. 2026-09-15
    days on market $400,000 Active 13 DOM
40. 2026-09-14
    days on market $400,000 Active 12 DOM
41. 2026-09-13
    days on market $400,000 Active 11 DOM
42. 2026-09-12
    days on market $400,000 Active 10 DOM
43. 2026-09-11
    days on market $400,000 Active 9 DOM
44. 2026-09-05
    days on market $400,000 Active 3 DOM
45. 2026-09-04
    days on marketlisting id $400,000 Active 2 DOM
46. 2026-08-31
    days on market $400,000 Active 145 DOM
47. 2026-08-30
    days on market $400,000 Active 144 DOM
48. 2026-08-29
    days on market $400,000 Active 143 DOM
49. 2026-08-28
    days on market $400,000 Active 142 DOM
50. 2026-08-27
    days on market $400,000 Active 141 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,383 · $782/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,383 · $782/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$9,383
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,273
• − Management: −$3,273
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$12,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs needed. The home's curb appeal and interior can be enhanced with a fresh coat of paint and a modern flooring option.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Paint interior — Freshens up the home's appearance ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Hardwood floors are in good condition but could be replaced for a more modern look ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary O'dell El B TX #368/4,322 Nat'l #6,943/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession typically 30-60 days
• Financial info: Treat As Clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory associationMonthly association fee of $135HOA covers grounds maintenance and management; managed by Insight Association Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo storiesPart of The Parks at Wilson Creek planned developmentSmart home features
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2024
• Exterior features: Smaller residential lot in a planned communityCommunity grounds maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveDishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary suite on second level; other bedrooms on first and second levels)
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplanKitchen islandLoftPantryWalk-in closetsTwo living areasOne dining areaTen total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedTankless water heaterWater softenerUtility room

Price history

-29.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-02 Listed $400,000 NTREIS
• 2026-08-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $400,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $430,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $475,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $565,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $475,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $500,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $550,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $565,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-05-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed $578,590 NTREIS
• 2024-03-22 Price Changed $573,590 NTREIS
• 2024-03-15 Price Changed $572,165 NTREIS
• 2024-01-31 Price Changed $567,165 NTREIS
• 2024-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-27 Listed $567,510 NTREIS

Property tax history

+79.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $9,383 · -16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.