Is 1700 Palo Duro Way in Celina, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.8% cap rate and $-484/mo modeled cash flow at a $400,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1700 Palo Duro Way?

The modeled cap rate is 4.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $3,603/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 42.92

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +7.6/30.0
Schools +5.9/10.0
1% rule +4.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
DSCR +1.7/10.0
Rent growth +1.3/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$400,000

1700 Palo Duro Way · Celina, TX 75009

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,427 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 4,661 sqft lot Garage $165/sqft · 20% below area Est $505k · 21% under $135/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 20521743 - Built by Highland Homes - Ready Now! ~ Luxurious two-story home exudes charm with white brick facade and inviting front porch. Inside, be captivated by soaring ceilings in the entry and living area. The spacious kitchen boasts ample storage, Stainless Steel appliances, upper cabinets, and stunning quartz countertops. Retreat to the primary suite with its luxurious En-Suite bath featuring a drop-in tub and separate shower. Elegant tile upgrades throughout complete this picture-perfect home!

Key facts

Inviting front porch
Spacious kitchen
Soaring ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-484 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (21.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $360k (9.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $314k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: O'Dell El (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 826 students, 15% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $165k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $314,484 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.90% ✗
Cap rate: 4.84%
Cash-on-cash: -5.19%
DSCR: 0.77
GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $504,856
List price: $400,000
Delta: -20.77%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1604 Victoria Pl	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-4%)	2mo	$474,900	$203	86
1629 Asbury Ln	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,579 (+6%)	1mo	$563,985	$219	86
2736 Acadia Mews	0.07mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-4%)	3mo	$474,900	$203	86
1717 Palo Duro Way	0.04mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-4%)	7mo	$474,900	$203	84
2628 Muirwood Way	0.10mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-4%)	4mo	$475,900	$204	84
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,321 (-4%)	5mo	$464,900	$200	80
2118 Newhall Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,464 (+2%)	2mo	$495,000	$201	64
2601 Hardwood Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,429 (+0%)	4mo	$490,000	$202	62
2209 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,447 (+1%)	6mo	$572,350	$234	62
2619 Cedar Ridge Rd	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,671 (+10%)	1mo	$575,000	$215	54
2616 Hardwood Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,464 (+2%)	5mo	$565,475	$229	53
2434 Plumeria Ln	0.38mi	4/4.0	2,784 (+15%)	8mo	$589,990	$212	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.3%
Equity multiple: 0.06×
Total profit: $-105,805
Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

IRR: -54.1%
Equity multiple: -0.53×
Total profit: $-171,006
Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 112 active · 11 under contract
Months of supply: 56.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $547,950 ($219/sqft)
Median days on market: 271 d
This list price: 1% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -4.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

Home prices YoY: -23.1%
Rents YoY: -4.6%
Active inventory: 3407
Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $3,603 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
Tax from tax record: −$931 /mo · $11,173/yr
Insurance: −$167
HOA: −$135
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$757
Net cashflow: $-484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,216

Max offer price $314,484

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-258	-5% $-371	+0% $-484	+5% $-597	+10% $-711
Rent	-10% $-769	-5% $-626	+0% $-484	+5% $-342	+10% $-199
Rate	-1.0pp $-283	-0.5pp $-382	base $-484	+0.5pp $-588	+1.0pp $-693

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $100,000
Closing costs: $12,000
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	21d	1	0.00mi
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1964	$2,500	$1.27	0d	1	0.10mi
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2024	$3,050	$1.51	3d	1	0.13mi
2437 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	3257	$3,611	$1.11	92d	1	0.33mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1930	$2,595	$1.34	17d	1	1.19mi
1720 Yaupon Ct Celina, TX	4.0	5.0	3271	$3,450	$1.05	73d	1	1.19mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	34d	1	1.29mi
2600 Precocious Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3316	$4,700	$1.42	7d	1	1.31mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	92d	1	1.39mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	68d	1	1.40mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2331	$3,300	$1.42	37d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Possession 30-60 days
Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $135 per monthHOA covers grounds maintenance and management feesHOA managed by Insight Association Management

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2 covered/garage spaces
Utilities: City waterCity sewerNot in a municipal utility district
Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo-story homeEntry level spans first and second floorsSmart home features
Construction: Built in 2024Brick constructionComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lotSubdivision: The Parks at Wilson CreekDirections available

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenGas cooktopMicrowaveKitchen islandPantry
Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on 2nd floor; other bedrooms on 1st and 2nd floors)
Flooring: CarpetCeramic tileLuxury vinyl plank
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central airCeiling fan(s)
Interior features: Open floor plan with a loftKitchen islandPantryWalk-in closet(s)Two living areasOne dining areaRoom count: 10
Laundry & utility: WasherDryerTankless water heaterWater softenerUtility room

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $400,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $400,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $400,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $400,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $400,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $400,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $400,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $400,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $400,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $400,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $400,000 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $400,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $400,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $400,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $400,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $400,000 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $400,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $400,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $400,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $400,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $400,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $400,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $400,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $400,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $400,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $400,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $400,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $400,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $400,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $400,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $400,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $400,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $400,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $400,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $400,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $400,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $400,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $400,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $400,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $400,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $400,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $400,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $400,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $400,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $400,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $400,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $400,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $400,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $400,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $400,000 Active 56 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $11,173 · $931/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $11,173 · $931/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $43,236
− Mortgage interest: −$22,406
− Property taxes: −$11,173
− Insurance: −$2,000
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,459
− Management: −$3,459
− HOA: −$1,620
− Depreciation: −$11,636
Taxable loss: −$12,518

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,004
After-tax cash flow: $-2,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs needed. The home's curb appeal and interior can be enhanced with a fresh coat of paint and a modern flooring option.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
Resale Paint interior — Freshens up the home's appearance ↑
Both Replace flooring — Hardwood floors are in good condition but could be replaced for a more modern look ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary O'dell El B TX #368/4,322 Nat'l #6,943/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Celina ISD
NCES district ID: 4813290
Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $83,282
Composite: 50.49/100
National rank: #1853
State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

Score: 68/100
State rank: #450
US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Celina, TX
County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
City population: 34,260
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 34,260
Household income: $168,250
Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
Current HPI: 276.6307
Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-29.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

2026-05-28 Price Changed $400,000 NTREIS
2026-05-18 Price Changed $430,000 NTREIS
2026-04-08 Price Changed $475,000 NTREIS
2026-04-08 Listed $565,000 NTREIS
2026-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
2026-03-23 Price Changed $475,000 NTREIS
2026-03-10 Price Changed $500,000 NTREIS
2025-11-18 Price Changed $550,000 NTREIS
2025-10-31 Listed $565,000 NTREIS
2024-09-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
2024-05-11 Pending — NTREIS
2024-04-05 Price Changed $578,590 NTREIS
2024-03-22 Price Changed $573,590 NTREIS
2024-03-15 Price Changed $572,165 NTREIS
2024-01-31 Price Changed $567,165 NTREIS
2024-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
2024-01-27 Listed $567,510 NTREIS

Property tax history

+163.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,173 · +707.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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