1111 Mabry Rd · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77617

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2013 7,801 sqft lot $369/sqft · 30% below area Est $610k · 30% under $75/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Canal front investment opportunity on two lots with direct water access and private boat ramp. Located approximately 0.2 miles from beach access, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers strong short term rental potential combined with boating convenience. Property includes concrete bulkheads, generous outdoor entertaining space, and a recently added hot tub to increase nightly rental appeal. Positioned on two full lots, providing expansion potential or long term land value appreciation. Second lot conveys and will not be sold separately. Ideal for weekend rental income, fishing retreats, or dual use personal and investment property. HOA dues are $450 per lot annually. Lots 405 and 406.

Key facts

• Concrete bulkheads
• Hot tub
• Private boat ramp

Tags

• WRAP-AROUND PORCH
• BEACH ACCESS
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• CONCRETE BULKHEADS
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• HOT TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (55.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (55.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• High Island ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,764 (55.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.74%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $609,552
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -30.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2518 Audubon Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (+2%)	11mo	$399,000	$339	58
2558 Audubon Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-4%)	23mo	$445,000	$405	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-33,397
• Equity at exit: $191,098

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $1,335
• Equity at exit: $294,505

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77617

• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$651 /mo · $7,806/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $-1,337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,811

Max offer price $188,764

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,097	-5% $-1,217	+0% $-1,337	+5% $-1,458	+10% $-1,578
Rent	-10% $-1,584	-5% $-1,460	+0% $-1,337	+5% $-1,214	+10% $-1,091
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,123	-0.5pp $-1,229	base $-1,337	+0.5pp $-1,447	+1.0pp $-1,559

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $425,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $425,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-02-20
    listed $425,000 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Canal front investment opportunity on two lots with direct water access and private boat ramp. Located approximately 0.2 miles from beach access, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers strong short term rental potential combined with boating convenience. Property includes concrete bulkheads, generous outdoor entertaining space, and a recently added hot tub to increase nightly rental appeal. Positioned on two full lots, providing expansion potential or long term land value appreciation. Second lot conveys and will not be sold separately. Ideal for weekend rental income, fishing retreats, or dual use personal and investment property. HOA dues are $450 per lot annually. Lots 405 and 406.

17. 2026-02-20
    historical

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Canal front investment opportunity on two lots with direct water access and private boat ramp. Located approximately 0.2 miles from beach access, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers strong short term rental potential combined with boating convenience. Property includes concrete bulkheads, generous outdoor entertaining space, and a recently added hot tub to increase nightly rental appeal. Positioned on two full lots, providing expansion potential or long term land value appreciation. Second lot conveys and will not be sold separately. Ideal for weekend rental income, fishing retreats, or dual use personal and investment property. HOA dues are $450 per lot annually. Lots 405 and 406.

18. 2026-01-05
    status Active
19. 2026-01-05
    price $425,000
20. 2025-05-01
    historical
21. 2025-04-16
    price $435,000
22. 2025-02-27
    listed $450,000 Active
23. 2023-02-27
    historical
24. 2022-08-07
    listed $536,888 Active
25. 2022-08-07
    historical
26. 2022-06-27
    listed $544,888 Active
27. 2021-06-30
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2021-05-10
    status Pending
29. 2021-04-28
    status Option Pending
30. 2020-09-09
    price $374,500
31. 2020-03-02
    listed $384,900 Active
32. 2005-06-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,806 · $651/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,806 · $651/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$7,806
• − Insurance: −$10,153
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,993
• − Management: −$2,993
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$23,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,664
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: High Island ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823160
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,447
• Composite: 50.69/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #177 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 38

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Serbian 18%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $435,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed $450,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-08-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-08-07 Listed $536,888 HARMLS
• 2022-06-27 Listed $544,888 HARMLS
• 2021-06-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-09-09 Price Changed $374,500 HARMLS
• 2020-03-02 Listed $384,900 HARMLS
• 2005-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+30.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,806 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.