14370 Lum Day Rd · Bastrop, LA 71220

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2016

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1~bedroom, 1~bath home offering comfortable living with a functional layout and plenty of potential. This property is a great opportunity for first~time buyers, downsizers, or investors. Conveniently designed and easy to maintain, it’s a solid option for those looking for an affordable place to call home. ..

Key facts

• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From Bastrop: Highway 425 North; turn left on Lum Day Road.
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Natural gas not available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story, entry level 1
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Irregular-shaped lot; Workshop (other structure)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fans for cooling; No central heating specified
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Crawl space (basement type)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($953 rent vs $75k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#425 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Morehouse Parish (town): math 10% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #83 of 98 in LA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Morehouse Elementary School (math 3% / reading 9%, grade F, #630 of 646 statewide, top 98%, 587 students, 6% FRL); Bastrop High School (math 3% / reading 7%, grade F, #260 of 265 statewide, top 100%, 902 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 78% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Morehouse Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morehouse County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $75k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.62%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $6,987
• Equity at exit: $14,210

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $29,593
• Equity at exit: $11,806

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71220

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $953 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $867/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $629

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $298	-5% $277	+0% $256	+5% $235	+10% $213
Rent	-10% $181	-5% $218	+0% $256	+5% $293	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $294	-0.5pp $275	base $256	+0.5pp $236	+1.0pp $217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $75,000 Active
3. 2002-10-03
   soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $867 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $867 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$867
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$915
• − Management: −$915
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,978
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$475
• After-tax cash flow: $2,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morehouse Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201110
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $30,482
• Composite: 11.46/100
• National rank: #9704
• State rank: #83 of 98 in LA

Livability — Bastrop

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #25547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,426

Population outlook (Morehouse County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,631 people
• By 2030: 22,114 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,203 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 16,698 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 11,998 · -49.2%
• By 2100: 8,622 · -63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 44% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Morehouse

• 2024 margin: R (+19.4) · D 39.7% · R 59.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -11.1pp · 2024: -19.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.4 2020: R+13.5 2016: R+11.4 2012: R+5.6 2008: R+11.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.10%
• Current HPI: 171.3272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+500.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — NELABOR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $75,000 NELABOR
• 2002-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $867 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.