4334 Caprock Rd · Abilene, TX 79606

$359,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,834 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1971 10,237 sqft lot Est $337k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious Southside Home in Abilene ISD! Welcome to this well-maintained, one-owner home offering 2,834 square feet of comfortable living space and exceptional pride of ownership throughout. Designed with families in mind, this spacious residence features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 living areas, and 2 dining areas, providing plenty of room for everyday living and entertaining. The thoughtfully designed floor plan includes beautiful built-ins, classic plantation shutters, and a bright sunroom that offers additional flexible living space. The kitchen is equipped with updated appliances and ample workspace, making meal preparation a pleasure. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio and pergola

Key facts

• One-owner home
• Plantation shutters
• Sunroom

Tags

• ABILENE ISD
• WELL-MAINTAINED
• ONE-OWNER HOME
• BUILT-INS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• SUNROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $354k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.7%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,542/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1181% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $101k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $354,184 (1.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.70%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $337,246
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2601 Gilmer Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,637 (-7%)	15mo	$175,000	$66	55
2401 Helena Cir	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,501 (-12%)	7mo	$349,990	$140	53
2258 Rim Rock	0.72mi	4/3.0	3,015 (+6%)	4mo	$360,000	$119	48
2 Lake Point Cir	0.53mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,918 (+3%)	22mo	$449,000	$154	41
3526 Paint Brush Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,451 (-14%)	9mo	$240,000	$98	39
2518 Helena Cir	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,411 (-15%)	23mo	$299,000	$124	29
2349 Cooke St	0.72mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,577 (-9%)	18mo	$149,900	$58	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-19,749
• Equity at exit: $53,662

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $93,707
• Equity at exit: $31,118

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79606

• Rents YoY: 40.7%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,542 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,398/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$744
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,148

Max offer price $359,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2510 Gilmer Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,995	$1.52	43d	1	0.31mi
2418 Helena Cir Abilene, TX	4.0	2.5	2478	$3,700	$1.49	10d	1	0.38mi
4617 Catclaw Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	1.01mi
5400 Ridgeline Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	2571	$6,000	$2.33	24d	1	1.12mi
3409 High Meadows Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1987	$2,995	$1.51	20d	1	1.28mi
2929 Sayles Blvd Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2384	$6,000	$2.52	13d	1	1.36mi
25 Juniper Cir Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	2557	$3,500	$1.37	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $359,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$5,398
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,400
• − Management: −$3,400
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$2,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$510
• After-tax cash flow: $4,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,182
• Household income: $79,196
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1181.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.33%
• Current HPI: 179.2555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.73%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B