Mantle Plan · Lockhart, TX 78644

$279,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,483 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Watermill is a collection of brand-new single-family homes for sale at Summerside, a masterplan community in Lockhart, TX. Onsite community amenities such as a park, picnic area and playground will be enjoyed by residents, while the local area is home to a variety of shopping centers and parks, including Lockhart City Park, Maple Street Park and Lockhart State Park. Easy access to FM-1322, Highway 183 and SH-130 make commuting simple.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 172 days

🏗️ New construction. The $279,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $285,451.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,596 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,451
• List price: $279,999
• Delta: -1.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
431 Silvercloud Dr	0.29mi	5/3.0	2,483 (0%)	3mo	$268,990	$108	84
427 Silvercloud Dr	0.28mi	5/4.0	2,718 (+10%)	4mo	$289,990	$107	64
2327 Blizzard Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,162 (-13%)	6mo	$253,990	$117	54
2323 Blizzard Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,891 (-24%)	6mo	$292,840	$155	50
430 Monsoon Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,891 (-24%)	6mo	$243,990	$129	50
2305 Dust Devil Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,885 (-24%)	13mo	$299,990	$159	49
433 Silvercloud Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,985 (-20%)	5mo	$249,990	$126	48
600 Clear Sky Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,119 (-15%)	0mo	$232,000	$109	40
629 Halfmoon Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,885 (-24%)	20mo	$299,490	$159	19
2210 Cumulus Ct	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,874 (-24%)	22mo	$289,990	$155	16
634 Clear Sky Dr	0.76mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,885 (-24%)	21mo	$299,990	$159	16
2223 Cumulus Ct	1.42mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,885 (-24%)	24mo	$299,990	$159	13

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-63,386
• Equity at exit: $42,562

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-77,163
• Equity at exit: $24,681

Cash invested: $79,926 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $266,749 ($127/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 70% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,497
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$357 /mo · $4,282/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,497

Max offer price $246,457

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-72	-5% $-171	+0% $-269	+5% $-368	+10% $-467
Rent	-10% $-440	-5% $-355	+0% $-269	+5% $-184	+10% $-99
Rate	-1.0pp $-126	-0.5pp $-197	base $-269	+0.5pp $-343	+1.0pp $-419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,363
• Closing costs: $8,564
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2329 Silvercloud Dr Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,850	$1.00	65d	1	0.08mi
403 Thunderstorm Ave Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,800	$1.05	9d	1	0.20mi
2329 Red Sky Dr Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,750	$1.05	9d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $279,999 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $279,999 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $279,999 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $279,999 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $279,999 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $279,999 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $279,999 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $279,999 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $279,999 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $279,999 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $279,999 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $279,999 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $279,999 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $279,999 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $279,999 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $279,999 Active 152 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $279,999 Active 151 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $279,999 Active 150 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $279,999 Active 149 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $279,999 Active 148 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $279,999 Active 147 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $279,999 Active 146 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $279,999 Active 145 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $279,999 Active 144 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $279,999 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $279,999 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $279,999 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $279,999 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $279,999 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $279,999 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $279,999 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $279,999 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $279,999 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $279,999 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $279,999 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $279,999 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $279,999 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $279,999 Active 126 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $279,999 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $279,999 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $279,999 Active 121 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $279,999 Active 120 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $279,999 Active 119 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $279,999 Active 117 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,999 Active 113 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,999 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,999 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,999 Active 108 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,999 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,999 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,990
• − Property taxes: −$4,282
• − Insurance: −$1,427
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − Depreciation: −$8,304
• Taxable loss: −$8,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,985
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new single-family home in Lockhart, TX, is move-in ready with no visible signs of wear or damage. It offers a pristine condition and is ideal for both resale and rental markets.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary George W Carver Early Education Center High Lockhart H S F TX #1,204/1,632 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 46,557 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

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Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $279,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $279,990 Zillow