12393 Paige Rd · Bowling Green, VA 22580

$274,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1980 2.00 ac lot $249/sqft · at area comps Est $282k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handy person!!! Work and save. Needs TLC. Two (2) mostly open acres with room for gardening, flower beds, and other outdoor activities. Flat lot located only 6.4 miles from Rt. 1. Only 8.6 miles from the Kalahari water park at Thornburg. Lake Anna is a reasonable distance away. Close to the Raceway at Thornburg. A few minutes from shopping and restaurants in Thornburg, Ladysmith, and Bowling Green. Conveniently located for commuting North and South. 4 BR, 1.5 baths. Animals allowed. This is a country setting. Detached 2 car metal carport and shed. All appliances, swing set, and shed being conveyed as is. No know defects. House being sold as-is at this price. Inspections are for informational purposes only. Gas hookup for gas logs. Electric range currently. The propane gas hookup is still in place in case you prefer to cook with gas. Newer dimensional shingled roof.

Key facts

• Mostly open acres
• Detached carport
• Flat lot

Tags

• MOSTLY OPEN ACRES
• ROOM FOR GARDENING
• FLAT LOT
• CLOSE TO RACEWAY
• DETACHED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.4% in Bowling Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#357 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,703 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,212
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -2.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $155,994
• Equity at exit: $247,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $454,139
• Equity at exit: $534,070

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22580

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,330/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,110

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $256	-5% $178	+0% $100	+5% $22	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-76	-5% $12	+0% $100	+5% $189	+10% $277
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $170	base $100	+0.5pp $29	+1.0pp $-43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $274,900 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-05-19
   historical Active Under Contract 877-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   Handy person!!! Work and save. Needs TLC. Two (2) mostly open acres with room for gardening, flower beds, and other outdoor activities. Flat lot located only 6.4 miles from Rt. 1. Only 8.6 miles to the Kalahari Water Park at Thornburg. Lake Anna is a reasonable distance away. Close to the Raceway at Thornburg. A few minutes from shopping and restaurants in Thornburg. Ladysmith, and Bowling Green. Conveniently located for commuting North or South. 4 BR, 1.5 Baths. Animals allowed. This is a Country setting. Detached 2 car metal carport and shed. All appliances, swing set, and shed being conveyed as-is. No know defects. House being sold as-is at this price. Inspections are for informational purposes only. Gas hookup for gas logs. Electric range currently. The gas hookup for a range is still in place if gas cooking is preferred. Verify Schools. Newer roof with dimensional shingles.

3. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   Handy person!!! Work and save. Needs TLC. Two (2) mostly open acres with room for gardening, flower beds, and other outdoor activities. Flat lot located only 6.4 miles from Rt. 1. Only 8.6 miles to the Kalahari Water Park at Thornburg. Lake Anna is a reasonable distance away. Close to the Raceway at Thornburg. A few minutes from shopping and restaurants in Thornburg. Ladysmith, and Bowling Green. Conveniently located for commuting North or South. 4 BR, 1.5 Baths. Animals allowed. This is a Country setting. Detached 2 car metal carport and shed. All appliances, swing set, and shed being conveyed as-is. No know defects. House being sold as-is at this price. Inspections are for informational purposes only. Gas hookup for gas logs. Electric range currently. The gas hookup for a range is still in place if gas cooking is preferred. Verify Schools. Newer roof with dimensional shingles.

4. 2026-03-24
   listed $274,900 Active 877-char remark

   Show marketing remark (877 chars)

   Handy person!!! Work and save. Needs TLC. Two (2) mostly open acres with room for gardening, flower beds, and other outdoor activities. Flat lot located only 6.4 miles from Rt. 1. Only 8.6 miles from the Kalahari water park at Thornburg. Lake Anna is a reasonable distance away. Close to the Raceway at Thornburg. A few minutes from shopping and restaurants in Thornburg, Ladysmith, and Bowling Green. Conveniently located for commuting North and South. 4 BR, 1.5 baths. Animals allowed. This is a country setting. Detached 2 car metal carport and shed. All appliances, swing set, and shed being conveyed as is. No know defects. House being sold as-is at this price. Inspections are for informational purposes only. Gas hookup for gas logs. Electric range currently. The propane gas hookup is still in place in case you prefer to cook with gas. Newer dimensional shingled roof.

5. 2026-03-23
   listed $274,900 Active 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   Handy person!!! Work and save. Needs TLC. Two (2) mostly open acres with room for gardening, flower beds, and other outdoor activities. Flat lot located only 6.4 miles from Rt. 1. Only 8.6 miles to the Kalahari Water Park at Thornburg. Lake Anna is a reasonable distance away. Close to the Raceway at Thornburg. A few minutes from shopping and restaurants in Thornburg. Ladysmith, and Bowling Green. Conveniently located for commuting North or South. 4 BR, 1.5 Baths. Animals allowed. This is a Country setting. Detached 2 car metal carport and shed. All appliances, swing set, and shed being conveyed as-is. No know defects. House being sold as-is at this price. Inspections are for informational purposes only. Gas hookup for gas logs. Electric range currently. The gas hookup for a range is still in place if gas cooking is preferred. Verify Schools. Newer roof with dimensional shingles.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,254 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$924/yr (+$77/mo · 69.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$1,330
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$3,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$852
• After-tax cash flow: $2,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bowling Green

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #14386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,956

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 384.3319
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $274,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $274,900 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,330 · +19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.