4136 Bethlehem Rd · Hudson, TX 75904

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1986 10,454 sqft lot $114/sqft · 38% below area Est $257k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors take notice, this home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a partially fenced yard perfect for pets or outdoor entertaining. Step inside to find a spacious and open floor plan with a farmhouse kitchen, complete with stainless steel appliances and cabinet space. This home boasts a stunning primary suite that includes a beautiful bathroom with a large walk-in shower. It is a true retreat, offering ample space for a king-sized bed, seating area, and more. The additional bedrooms are perfect for guests or a home office. With a split open floor plan, this home provides plenty of privacy and space for everyone in the household.

Key facts

• Farmhouse kitchen
• Large walk-in shower
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• FARMHOUSE KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WALK-IN SHOWER
• SPLIT OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.0% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#791 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hudson ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #85 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.11%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,406
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -35.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
197 Hunters Glen Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,644 (+14%)	1mo	$235,000	$143	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-19,124
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,865
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75904

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,921/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,385

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6328 Ted Trout Dr Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	44d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $165,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2025-10-07
   listed $165,000 Active 641-char remark

   Show marketing remark (641 chars)

   Investors take notice, this home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a partially fenced yard perfect for pets or outdoor entertaining. Step inside to find a spacious and open floor plan with a farmhouse kitchen, complete with stainless steel appliances and cabinet space. This home boasts a stunning primary suite that includes a beautiful bathroom with a large walk-in shower. It is a true retreat, offering ample space for a king-sized bed, seating area, and more. The additional bedrooms are perfect for guests or a home office. With a split open floor plan, this home provides plenty of privacy and space for everyone in the household.

7. 2022-01-31
   soldstatus
8. 2007-10-09
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,921 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,099/yr (+$92/mo · 57.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,921
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$313
• After-tax cash flow: $1,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823790
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,047
• Composite: 49.4/100
• National rank: #2012
• State rank: #85 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #791
• US rank: #14441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hudson, TX
• County: Angelina County · 62,696 people
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,462
• Household income: $60,205
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1159.0

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.71%
• Current HPI: 213.4236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-07 Listed $165,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2022-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,921 · +18.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.