🏗️ New Construction
Palm Plan · Lakeland, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 7/10 · Major
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 24 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Condition / age +5.0/5.0
- Schools +4.0/10.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Rent growth +3.0/5.0
- Cash flow +2.1/30.0
- 1% rule +0.0/10.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$299,990
Palm Plan · Lakeland, FL 33813
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,722 sqft · SingleFamily
· 111 Days on market
Garage
$13/mo HOA · 1% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
The Palm single-family home is purely amazing. 4 spacious bedrooms and a full bath offer all the space you need for family and friends to enjoy quiet comfort. Get everyone together in the great room for game night. Or gather around the dining table and center island for a mouthwatering homemade meal, fresh from the gorgeous gourmet kitchen. Enjoy some fresh air outside on the lovely lanai. Then call it a night and step into your luxurious owner's suite. In here, a large walk-in closet and double vanity bath make everyday feel like spa day. Find your slice of paradise in The Palm.
Key facts
- Walk-in closet
- Gourmet kitchen
- Great room
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction.
The $299,990 list price is a builder
figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from
comparable previous sales — $529,000.
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (16.6% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (26.5% below list).
- Recommended offer: $220k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 4.2% in Lakeland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Spessard L Holland Elementary (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 766 students, 52% FRL); Bartow Middle School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #421 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,046 students, 63% FRL); Bartow Senior High School (math 26% / reading 46%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 2,125 students, 44% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 415 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$220,488
(26.5% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.42% ✗
- Cap rate
- 1.92%
- Cash-on-cash
- -15.61%
- DSCR
- 0.31
- GRM
- 20.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $529,000
- List price
- $299,990
- Delta
- -43.29%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 3 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6688 Millstone Ave | 0.12mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,486 (-14%) | 0mo | $301,190 | $203 | 66 |
| 2060 Ashboro Pl | 2.13mi | 4/2.0 | 1,824 (+6%) | 0mo | $334,900 | $184 | 55 |
| 2663 Brookside Bluff Loop | 1.66mi | 4/2.0 | 2,220 (+29%) | 0mo | $529,000 | $238 | 40 |
| 2341 EF Griffin Rd | 1.08mi | 4/2.0 | 2,048 (+19%) | 0mo | $618,000 | $302 | 40 |
| 4583 Great Blue Heron Dr | 2.06mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,459 (-15%) | 0mo | $307,000 | $210 | 35 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -47.8%
- Equity multiple
- -0.42×
- Total profit
- $-211,017
- Equity at exit
- $78,876
10-year hold
- IRR
- -99.1%
- Equity multiple
- -1.38×
- Total profit
- $-352,067
- Equity at exit
- $45,738
Cash invested: $148,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 55 active · 30 under contract
- Months of supply
- 330.0 mo (0%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $319,000 ($193/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 87 d
- This list price
- 31% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +59.3% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 33813
- Rents YoY
- 1.8%
- Active inventory
- 415
- Price-to-rent
- 11.3×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,205 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,774
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$661 /mo · $7,935/yr
- Insurance
- −$220
- HOA
- −$13
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$463
- Net cashflow
- $-1,927
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$4,644
Max offer price
$250,168
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-1,561 | -5% $-1,744 | +0% $-1,927 | +5% $-2,110 | +10% $-2,293 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-2,101 | -5% $-2,014 | +0% $-1,927 | +5% $-1,840 | +10% $-1,753 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-1,661 | -0.5pp $-1,792 | base $-1,927 | +0.5pp $-2,064 | +1.0pp $-2,203 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $132,250
- Closing costs
- $15,870
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 11 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4017 Lana Dr Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1651 | $1,851 | $1.12 | 63d | 1 | 0.32mi |
| 2202 Morning Mist Ave Bartow, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1884 | $2,195 | $1.17 | 26d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 3842 Featherwood Trl Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1490 | $2,100 | $1.41 | 25d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 3819 Resting Robin Ave Unit NA Bartow, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1824 | $2,299 | $1.26 | 72d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 3305 Lounging Wren Ln Bartow, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1824 | $2,299 | $1.26 | 72d | 1 | 0.86mi |
| 1970 Country Manor St Bartow, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2080 | $2,216 | $1.07 | 70d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 2702 Red Egret Dr Bartow, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1555 | $2,140 | $1.38 | 72d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 4134 April St N Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1256 | $1,910 | $1.52 | 72d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 5967 Hillside Heights Dr Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1393 | $1,800 | $1.29 | 19d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 5967 Hillside Heights Dr Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1393 | $1,995 | $1.43 | 72d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 3858 Whitedove Dr Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1280 | $1,450 | $1.13 | 68d | 1 | 1.26mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- List price recorded at 299,990Listing status: Active
- HOA & community
- Association fee of 13 (period not specified)
Exterior
- Parking
- 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
- Utilities
- Central air (cooling)
- Home design
- New construction planSingle-family property (Palm plan)
- Exterior features
- Address: 6945 Sundial Dr, Lakeland FL 33813
Interior
- Bedrooms
- 4 bedrooms
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central air conditioning
- Interior features
- Plan name: PalmLiving area of 1,722
HOA detail $13/mo · $156/yr
- Likely covers
- water
Listing history 49 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $299,990 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $299,990 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $299,990 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $299,990 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $299,990 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $299,990 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $299,990 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $299,990 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $299,990 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $299,990 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $299,990 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $299,990 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $299,990 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $299,990 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $299,990 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-07-19days on market $299,990 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $299,990 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $299,990 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $299,990 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $299,990 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $299,990 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $299,990 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $299,990 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $299,990 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $299,990 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $299,990 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $299,990 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $299,990 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $299,990 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $299,990 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $299,990 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $299,990 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $299,990 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $299,990 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-06-23days on market $299,990 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $299,990 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $299,990 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $299,990 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $299,990 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $299,990 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $299,990 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $299,990 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $299,990 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $299,990 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $299,990 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $299,990 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $299,990 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $299,990 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $299,990 Active 42 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 7/10 Severe
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $26,459
- − Mortgage interest
- −$29,632
- − Property taxes
- −$7,935
- − Insurance
- −$2,645
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,117
- − Management
- −$2,117
- − HOA
- −$156
- − Depreciation
- −$15,389
- Taxable loss
- −$33,532
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$8,048
- After-tax cash flow
- $-15,076/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos
100/100
None rehab
This single-family home in Highland City, FL, is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, spacious bedrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to the interior and landscaping to further enhance its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
- Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers/renters. ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Spessard L Holland Elementary
D
FL #1,171/2,144
Nat'l #14,249/41,679
Middle
Bartow Middle School
F
FL #421/571
Nat'l #7,581/14,009
High
Bartow Senior High School
F
FL #359/667
Nat'l #9,405/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Polk
- NCES district ID
- 1201590
- Math proficiency
- 39% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 43% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,979
- Composite
- 34.74/100
- National rank
- #5132
- State rank
- #62 of 73 in FL
B
Composite livability gradescore 77/100
Livability — Lakeland
- Score
- 77/100
- State rank
- #206
- US rank
- #3179
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime C+
Employment D+
Housing A+
Health & safety A+
User ratings A+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Polk County · 752,975 people
- City population
- 277,690
- Metro
- Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 38,674
- Household income
- $99,497
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 12% of renters
Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 752,975 people
- By 2030
- 804,621 · +6.9%
- By 2040
- 906,117 · +20.3%
- By 2050
- 1,000,476 · +32.9%
- By 2075
- 1,197,520 · +59.0%
- By 2100
- 1,271,518 · +68.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (70%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 10% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 0%
Political lean MEDSL · Polk
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -224.20%
- Current HPI
- 296.1207
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.81%
- Metro
- Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…