3003 Elmwood Dr · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$152,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,121 sqft · SingleFamily · 178 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 5,009 sqft lot $136/sqft · 28% above area Est $119k · 28% over $7/mo HOA ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turnkey investment opportunity with tenant in place offering immediate rental income. This well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home in Granbury Texas is currently leased through January 16 2027 at 1575 per month providing consistent cash flow from day one. This thoughtfully designed home features energy efficient upgrades stainless steel appliances and abundant natural light creating a bright and inviting interior. The open concept layout offers a seamless flow between the living dining and kitchen areas making the home functional for everyday living and appealing for long term tenancy. The spacious primary suite provides comfort and privacy while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a variety of living needs. Interior highlights include a custom entertainment center with an electric fireplace durable finishes and a layout designed for low maintenance ownership. Exterior features include concrete parking front and rear decks ideal for outdoor use and a fully fenced backyard offering added privacy. The property is conveniently located directly across from the community pool and park with additional nearby parks and a boat ramp contributing to tenant appeal and overall desirability. Close proximity to local shopping dining and area amenities supports continued rental demand. Buyer to verify all information including lease details measurements schools taxes and HOA information.

Key facts

• Front and rear decks
• Electric fireplace
• Concrete parking

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT UPGRADES
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• CONCRETE PARKING
• FRONT AND REAR DECKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $153k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $134,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.65%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,327
• List price: $152,900
• Delta: 28.14%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3014 Inwood Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	8mo	$175,000	$142	70
3005 Blackjack Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+14%)	5mo	$240,000	$188	66
2816 Overview Rd	0.31mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,204 (+7%)	2mo	$129,000	$107	65
2906 Cedarhill St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-3%)	22mo	$110,000	$101	60
3406 Woodlake Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+8%)	9mo	$217,500	$179	47
3516 Oak Hill Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-6%)	19mo	$143,000	$135	36
4808 Orange Blossom St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+8%)	22mo	$99,900	$82	34
2923 Cedarbrush St	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-14%)	22mo	$73,000	$76	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,776
• Equity at exit: $22,798

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $18,807
• Equity at exit: $13,220

Cash invested: $42,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,873 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$191 /mo · $2,294/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,346

Max offer price $152,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,225
• Closing costs: $4,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	1d	1	0.24mi
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	1d	1	0.51mi
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	43d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,900 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,900 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,900 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,900 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,900 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,900 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,900 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $152,900 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $152,900 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,900 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,900 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,900 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,900 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    price $152,900 1415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1415 chars)

    Turnkey investment opportunity with tenant in place offering immediate rental income. This well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home in Granbury Texas is currently leased through January 16 2027 at 1575 per month providing consistent cash flow from day one. This thoughtfully designed home features energy efficient upgrades stainless steel appliances and abundant natural light creating a bright and inviting interior. The open concept layout offers a seamless flow between the living dining and kitchen areas making the home functional for everyday living and appealing for long term tenancy. The spacious primary suite provides comfort and privacy while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a variety of living needs. Interior highlights include a custom entertainment center with an electric fireplace durable finishes and a layout designed for low maintenance ownership. Exterior features include concrete parking front and rear decks ideal for outdoor use and a fully fenced backyard offering added privacy. The property is conveniently located directly across from the community pool and park with additional nearby parks and a boat ramp contributing to tenant appeal and overall desirability. Close proximity to local shopping dining and area amenities supports continued rental demand. Buyer to verify all information including lease details measurements schools taxes and HOA information.

15. 2026-01-16
    historical $1,575
16. 2025-12-22
    listed $157,500 Active 1415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1415 chars)

    Turnkey investment opportunity with tenant in place offering immediate rental income. This well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home in Granbury Texas is currently leased through January 16 2027 at 1575 per month providing consistent cash flow from day one. This thoughtfully designed home features energy efficient upgrades stainless steel appliances and abundant natural light creating a bright and inviting interior. The open concept layout offers a seamless flow between the living dining and kitchen areas making the home functional for everyday living and appealing for long term tenancy. The spacious primary suite provides comfort and privacy while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for a variety of living needs. Interior highlights include a custom entertainment center with an electric fireplace durable finishes and a layout designed for low maintenance ownership. Exterior features include concrete parking front and rear decks ideal for outdoor use and a fully fenced backyard offering added privacy. The property is conveniently located directly across from the community pool and park with additional nearby parks and a boat ramp contributing to tenant appeal and overall desirability. Close proximity to local shopping dining and area amenities supports continued rental demand. Buyer to verify all information including lease details measurements schools taxes and HOA information.

17. 2025-12-20
    listed $1,575
18. 2025-12-16
    historical
19. 2025-11-25
    price $167,000
20. 2025-11-15
    price $168,000
21. 2025-10-27
    price $168,500
22. 2025-10-08
    price $169,000
23. 2025-09-26
    price $172,500
24. 2025-08-26
    price $173,000
25. 2025-07-22
    price $174,000
26. 2025-07-10
    price $175,000
27. 2025-06-10
    price $176,500
28. 2025-06-10
    price $166,500
29. 2025-05-27
    price $177,500
30. 2025-04-26
    price $178,500
31. 2025-03-20
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,565
• − Property taxes: −$2,294
• − Insurance: −$764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,798
• − Management: −$1,798
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$4,448
• Taxable income: $2,722
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$653
• After-tax cash flow: $4,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Granbury, Texas is currently leased and offers immediate rental income. It features modern appliances, an open concept layout, and energy-efficient upgrades, making it a turnkey investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $152,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-16 Rental Removed $1,575 NTREIS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $157,500 NTREIS
• 2025-12-20 Listed for Rent $1,575 NTREIS
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $167,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $168,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $168,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $172,500 NTREIS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $173,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $174,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $176,500 NTREIS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $166,500 NTREIS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $177,500 NTREIS
• 2025-04-26 Price Changed $178,500 NTREIS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $179,000 NTREIS