6111 Caroline Green Ct · Spring, TX 77373

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2001 6,987 sqft lot $154/sqft · at area comps Est $224k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bragging Rights! Let's brag about all the Features & Upgrades in this beautifully landscaped, one story home. Looks almost new, absolutely no wear & tear. ALL Stainless Steel efficient appliances STAY! This includes, Washer/Dryer, fridge, Microwave, Gas Cook Top Stove, Electric Oven & Dishwasher. Energy efficient home, cozy Gas Fireplace, New Gas Water Heater comes w Warranty. Gas Furnace & Natural Gas line for BBQ, Smoke Detectors, & Carbon Monoxide Detectors. High Ceilings in Liv. Rm. & Kitchen. Double Sink in Primary bathroom with Walk-in Glass Shower. Neighborhood Constable for security. Stunning Modern Open Floor Plan. Interior & Exterior Exceptionally maintained. Cul-De-Sac Curb Appeal. Double Pane Energy Efficient windows throughout! Glorious Gourmet Kitchen w Granite Counters. Ceramic Tile in Living Room, Kitchen & Foyer. Garage Door Opener, Paved Patio, Blinds & ceiling fans in every rm. Located near Community Playground & Pool. Nearby Eateries, Shopping & Amenities!

Key facts

• Gas furnace
• New gas water heater
• Double sink

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS FIREPLACE
• NEW GAS WATER HEATER
• GAS FURNACE
• NATURAL GAS LINE
• DOUBLE SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($4/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,608
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: 0.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6422 Brookgate Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-1%)	12mo	$187,900	$130	65
5715 Walnutgate Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+7%)	4mo	$220,000	$141	61
5603 Rivergate Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+5%)	20mo	$190,000	$124	52
22731 Melham Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+5%)	13mo	$190,000	$124	51
22510 Arborgate Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-3%)	18mo	$190,000	$134	51
6722 Lynngate Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+14%)	1mo	$219,900	$132	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-42,885
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-62,202
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$462 /mo · $5,541/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,260

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectricpoolsecurity

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Pending 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Pending 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Pending 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Pending 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    status Active 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    Bragging Rights! Let's brag about all the Features & Upgrades in this beautifully landscaped, one story home. Looks almost new, absolutely no wear & tear. ALL Stainless Steel efficient appliances STAY! This includes, Washer/Dryer, fridge, Microwave, Gas Cook Top Stove, Electric Oven & Dishwasher. Energy efficient home, cozy Gas Fireplace, New Gas Water Heater comes w Warranty. Gas Furnace & Natural Gas line for BBQ, Smoke Detectors, & Carbon Monoxide Detectors. High Ceilings in Liv. Rm. & Kitchen. Double Sink in Primary bathroom with Walk-in Glass Shower. Neighborhood Constable for security. Stunning Modern Open Floor Plan. Interior & Exterior Exceptionally maintained. Cul-De-Sac Curb Appeal. Double Pane Energy Efficient windows throughout! Glorious Gourmet Kitchen w Granite Counters. Ceramic Tile in Living Room, Kitchen & Foyer. Garage Door Opener, Paved Patio, Blinds & ceiling fans in every rm. Located near Community Playground & Pool. Nearby Eateries, Shopping & Amenities!

16. 2026-05-06
    status Pending 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    Bragging Rights! Let's brag about all the Features & Upgrades in this beautifully landscaped, one story home. Looks almost new, absolutely no wear & tear. ALL Stainless Steel efficient appliances STAY! This includes, Washer/Dryer, fridge, Microwave, Gas Cook Top Stove, Electric Oven & Dishwasher. Energy efficient home, cozy Gas Fireplace, New Gas Water Heater comes w Warranty. Gas Furnace & Natural Gas line for BBQ, Smoke Detectors, & Carbon Monoxide Detectors. High Ceilings in Liv. Rm. & Kitchen. Double Sink in Primary bathroom with Walk-in Glass Shower. Neighborhood Constable for security. Stunning Modern Open Floor Plan. Interior & Exterior Exceptionally maintained. Cul-De-Sac Curb Appeal. Double Pane Energy Efficient windows throughout! Glorious Gourmet Kitchen w Granite Counters. Ceramic Tile in Living Room, Kitchen & Foyer. Garage Door Opener, Paved Patio, Blinds & ceiling fans in every rm. Located near Community Playground & Pool. Nearby Eateries, Shopping & Amenities!

17. 2026-04-27
    price $229,900 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    Bragging Rights! Let's brag about all the Features & Upgrades in this beautifully landscaped, one story home. Looks almost new, absolutely no wear & tear. ALL Stainless Steel efficient appliances STAY! This includes, Washer/Dryer, fridge, Microwave, Gas Cook Top Stove, Electric Oven & Dishwasher. Energy efficient home, cozy Gas Fireplace, New Gas Water Heater comes w Warranty. Gas Furnace & Natural Gas line for BBQ, Smoke Detectors, & Carbon Monoxide Detectors. High Ceilings in Liv. Rm. & Kitchen. Double Sink in Primary bathroom with Walk-in Glass Shower. Neighborhood Constable for security. Stunning Modern Open Floor Plan. Interior & Exterior Exceptionally maintained. Cul-De-Sac Curb Appeal. Double Pane Energy Efficient windows throughout! Glorious Gourmet Kitchen w Granite Counters. Ceramic Tile in Living Room, Kitchen & Foyer. Garage Door Opener, Paved Patio, Blinds & ceiling fans in every rm. Located near Community Playground & Pool. Nearby Eateries, Shopping & Amenities!

18. 2026-04-09
    listed $245,000 Active 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    Bragging Rights! Let's brag about all the Features & Upgrades in this beautifully landscaped, one story home. Looks almost new, absolutely no wear & tear. ALL Stainless Steel efficient appliances STAY! This includes, Washer/Dryer, fridge, Microwave, Gas Cook Top Stove, Electric Oven & Dishwasher. Energy efficient home, cozy Gas Fireplace, New Gas Water Heater comes w Warranty. Gas Furnace & Natural Gas line for BBQ, Smoke Detectors, & Carbon Monoxide Detectors. High Ceilings in Liv. Rm. & Kitchen. Double Sink in Primary bathroom with Walk-in Glass Shower. Neighborhood Constable for security. Stunning Modern Open Floor Plan. Interior & Exterior Exceptionally maintained. Cul-De-Sac Curb Appeal. Double Pane Energy Efficient windows throughout! Glorious Gourmet Kitchen w Granite Counters. Ceramic Tile in Living Room, Kitchen & Foyer. Garage Door Opener, Paved Patio, Blinds & ceiling fans in every rm. Located near Community Playground & Pool. Nearby Eateries, Shopping & Amenities!

19. 2026-03-31
    historical
20. 2026-03-13
    price $245,000
21. 2026-03-13
    listed $247,000 Active
22. 2026-03-12
    historical
23. 2026-02-27
    listed $249,900 Active
24. 2026-02-26
    historical
25. 2026-01-27
    price $254,900
26. 2025-12-05
    listed $260,000 Active
27. 2025-06-30
    historical $2,200
28. 2025-05-22
    listed $2,200
29. 2022-04-21
    soldstatus
30. 2022-04-19
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2022-03-29
    status Pending
32. 2022-03-22
    status Option Pending
33. 2022-03-18
    listed $235,000 Active
34. 2001-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,541 · $462/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,541 · $462/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$5,541
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,170
• − Management: −$2,170
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$871
• After-tax cash flow: $875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $247,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $254,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2022-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-18 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2001-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,541 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.