14931 Emerson Fld · Balm, FL 33598

$331,400

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $182/sqft · 8% below area Est $359k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 47 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $331k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-921/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in Balm — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 962 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 120d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $280,190 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,990
• List price: $331,400
• Delta: -7.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15023 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,882 (+4%)	1mo	$355,990	$189	81
15024 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,882 (+4%)	1mo	$357,990	$190	80
15029 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,882 (+4%)	2mo	$364,240	$194	80
14927 Emerson Field St	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-14%)	3mo	$310,700	$200	66
13608 New Jade Ave	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,020 (+11%)	2mo	$374,990	$186	60
15035 Coltman Hill Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-14%)	2mo	$294,990	$189	60
13603 New Jade Ave	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,020 (+11%)	2mo	$360,990	$179	60
13609 New Jade Ave	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,020 (+11%)	1mo	$359,990	$178	59
15037 Coltman Hill Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-14%)	2mo	$315,490	$202	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-57,608
• Equity at exit: $59,146

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-80,003
• Equity at exit: $45,655

Cash invested: $92,792 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.4 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,200 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 49 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 962
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,802 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,738
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$414 /mo · $4,971/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,899

Max offer price $320,297

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $38	+0% $-77	+5% $-191	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-298	-5% $-187	+0% $-77	+5% $34	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $8	base $-77	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,850
• Closing costs: $9,942
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15007 Coltman Hill Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,550	$1.33	120d	1	0.15mi
13191 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	84d	1	0.74mi
13181 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	120d	1	0.74mi
13095 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,300	$1.19	113d	1	0.87mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 14931 Emerson Fld, Wimauma, FL 33598Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $334,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Harrisburg plan)Spec home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,817

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (2 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction, Harrisburg plan

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,564
• − Property taxes: −$4,971
• − Insurance: −$1,657
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,690
• − Management: −$2,690
• − Depreciation: −$9,641
• Taxable loss: −$6,589
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,581
• After-tax cash flow: $661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,085–$27,255 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior shutters and kitchen faucet would enhance its resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior shutters — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen faucet — Improves kitchen functionality and aesthetics. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wimauma Elementary School F FL #1,882/2,144 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 14931 Emerson Fld, Wimauma, FL 33598Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $334,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Harrisburg plan)Spec home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,817

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (2 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction, Harrisburg plan